Rob Rang has a new No. 1 quarterback in the 2027 NFL draft class. In his updated quarterback rankings, published Thursday, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker moves from fourth to first, Texas’ Arch Manning moves from third to second, and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, his previous No. 1, drops to fourth.
Rang ranks 14 quarterbacks and splits them into three groups. Six get Day 1 grades: Mestemaker, Manning, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Chambliss, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Miami’s Darian Mensah. If all of his top prospects enter the draft, he writes, the class “could be historic, perhaps matching the six first-rounders we saw back in 2024.”
Manning is the outlier. Rang has him second among quarterbacks, while Mel Kiper Jr., Dane Brugler and Jordan Reid all rank him behind at least four other quarterbacks on their latest big boards.
Rang’s 14 quarterbacks
| Rank | Quarterback | School | Previous rank | Move | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | 4 | Up 3 | Day 1 |
| 2 | Arch Manning | Texas | 3 | Up 1 | Day 1 |
| 3 | Dante Moore | Oregon | 2 | Down 1 | Day 1 |
| 4 | Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | 1 | Down 3 | Day 1 |
| 5 | CJ Carr | Notre Dame | 6 | Up 1 | Day 1 |
| 6 | Darian Mensah | Miami | 5 | Down 1 | Day 1 |
| 7 | LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina | 9 | Up 2 | Day 2 |
| 8 | Jayden Maiava | USC | 8 | Same | Day 2 |
| 9 | Brendan Sorsby | Not playing in 2026 | 13 | Up 4 | Day 2 |
| 10 | John Mateer | Oklahoma | 14 | Up 4 | Day 3 |
| 11 | Gunner Stockton | Georgia | 12 | Up 1 | Day 3 |
| 12 | Sam Leavitt | LSU | 11 | Down 1 | Day 3 |
| 13 | Julian Sayin | Ohio State | 7 | Down 6 | Day 3 |
| 14 | Nico Iamaleava | UCLA | 10 | Down 4 | Day 3 |
Brendan Sorsby has not played this season because of a gambling suspension. Rang lists him ninth, up from 13th, because he had a Day 2 grade on him “when it briefly appeared he would be in a supplemental draft.” Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava fall to 13th and 14th after season-ending injuries, which Rang says will “probably convince each to return and play college football next year.”
Mestemaker is No. 1, with a warning
Rang says the comparisons between Mestemaker and Josh Allen are “valid,” citing his rise from fifth-string quarterback at North Texas and his “rare combination of size, arm talent and athleticism.” Mestemaker leads the country with 29 touchdown passes and is second with 2,962 passing yards.
But Rang also writes that “some in the media are skipping over games that scouts cannot.” He points to the 51-49 loss at Iowa State on Halloween, when Mestemaker threw for more than 300 yards and five touchdowns, but also made “a handful of other turnover-worthy throws.” Rang notes that 14 of Mestemaker’s 17 charted turnover-worthy plays this season came on the road.
“Mestemaker is undeniably talented and merits a first-round gamble, but make no mistake, that is what he’d be if jumping into the NFL after this season,” Rang writes. Mestemaker has not said whether he will enter the draft. Oklahoma State hosts Texas Tech on Saturday night.
Why Manning is second
“Even after his worst moments, I’ve argued that his size, speed and arm talent scream first-round pick,” Rang writes of Manning. He notes that Manning is coming off “arguably the cleanest game of his career,” completing 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers in Texas’ 34-20 win at Missouri on Nov. 7.
Rang suggests part of the gap in how Manning and Mestemaker are viewed comes from expectations. “Given his lineage, Manning is expected to be great. He is under a microscope with every snap,” he writes. “I wonder how well Mestemaker (or any of the other top quarterbacks in this class) would handle that pressure.” Texas plays at LSU on Saturday.
Chambliss falls, Sellers rises
Chambliss drops three spots after Ole Miss’ 42-7 loss to Georgia, when he completed 18 of 34 passes for 170 yards and was held out of the end zone for the first time in 22 starts for the Rebels. Rang calls it “the best evidence to date that Chambliss might be what some of his skeptics claim,” and notes that Chambliss now leads the SEC with nine interceptions. Still, Rang says he “won’t allow recency bias to dissuade me too much.” Ole Miss faces Oklahoma on Saturday.
Moore slips from second to third. His season ended in late September with a concussion, and Rang notes he has another year of eligibility. “If he opts for the NFL and gets a clean bill of health, he’s a lock to go in the first round,” Rang writes.
Carr moves up one spot to fifth after throwing for 319 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame’s 31-24 win over Miami. Rang says Carr “regularly diagnoses where the vulnerabilities are in the defense.” Mensah slips one spot to sixth, but Rang praises his red-zone play and his back-shoulder fades.
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers moves from ninth to seventh and is one of Rang’s biggest risers. Sellers has nine touchdown passes, three interceptions and six rushing touchdowns during South Carolina’s four-game winning streak. “If Sellers can continue his recent torrid stretch, he could play his way into the first round,” Rang writes. USC’s Jayden Maiava stays eighth, with Rang saying his game “seems to have plateaued this season.”
How Rang compares with the big boards
The table below puts Rang’s quarterback order next to where the same players rank overall on Kiper’s updated top 25, Brugler’s midseason top 50 and Reid’s updated top 50. All four have Mestemaker as the top quarterback. Carr is the second quarterback for Kiper, Brugler and Reid, but fifth for Rang.
| Quarterback | Rang QB rank | Kiper overall | Brugler overall | Reid overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Arch Manning | 2 | 22 | 25 | 37 |
| Dante Moore | 3 | 23 | 32 | 40 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 4 | 20 | 22 | 44 |
| CJ Carr | 5 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| Darian Mensah | 6 | 7 | 27 | 16 |
| LaNorris Sellers | 7 | Not in top 25 | 41 | 25 |
| Austin Simmons | Not ranked | 21 | 20 | 18 |
Missouri’s Austin Simmons, who is in the top 21 for Kiper, Brugler and Reid, is not among Rang’s 14 quarterbacks. Simmons has re-signed with Missouri for 2027.
Rang’s last full mock, on Nov. 5, sent six quarterbacks into Round 1, with Mestemaker going third to Miami. For how the quarterbacks are landing in other mocks since the trade deadline, see our comparison of three more post-deadline mocks.
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