Two mock drafts posted two days apart on the same site, built on the same draft order, disagree about the one quarterback NFL scouts now agree on.
Walter Cherepinsky, who signs his work as Walt, updated his 2027 first round on Wednesday, October 28, and Drew Mestemaker is not in it. His colleague Charlie Campbell refreshed his own mock on Friday, October 30, added a second round, and sends the Oklahoma State quarterback to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 5. A day later, Mestemaker got 17 of 25 votes in the midseason poll of NFL scouts and executives on who will be the first quarterback drafted.
Neither mock has Texas quarterback Arch Manning in Round 1, and both send Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 1.
Walt and Campbell, pick by pick
Both mocks use the order from Walt’s own NFL power rankings, which were set before the Week 8 games, rather than the current standings. The Jets pick three times in the first 12 in both.
| Pick | Team | Walt (Oct. 28) | Campbell (Oct. 30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State | Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas | Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins | CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame | Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas |
| 4 | Washington Commanders | Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame | Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas | Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | Darian Mensah, QB, Miami | Darian Mensah, QB, Miami |
| 7 | New York Jets | Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss | CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana | Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina |
| 9 | New York Jets | Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia | Xavier Gilliam, DT, Tennessee |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina | Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State |
| 11 | Houston Texans | Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss | Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU |
| 12 | New York Jets | Xavier Gilliam, DT, Tennessee | Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | Cam Coleman, WR, Texas | Cam Coleman, WR, Texas |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | Dante Moore, QB, Oregon | Dante Moore, QB, Oregon |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama | Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU | KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers |
| 17 | Seattle Seahawks | Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson | Yhonzae Pierre, EDGE, Alabama |
| 18 | New England Patriots | Jelani McDonald, S, Texas | Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida | Bear Alexander, DT, Oregon |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State | Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss |
| 21 | New York Giants | Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss | Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | KJ Bolden, S, Georgia | Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida |
| 23 | Cincinnati Bengals | Yhonzae Pierre, EDGE, Alabama | Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina | Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | Damon Wilson II, EDGE, Miami | Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | Boubacar Traore, EDGE, Notre Dame | Greg Johnson, G, Minnesota |
| 27 | Denver Broncos | David Stone, DT, Oklahoma | Zereoue Williams, OT, Utah |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | Ahmad Moten Sr., DT, Miami | Will Heldt, EDGE, Clemson |
| 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers | Reed Harris, WR, Arizona State |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | Will Heldt, EDGE, Clemson | Jelani McDonald, S, Texas |
| 31 | Buffalo Bills | Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU | KJ Bolden, S, Georgia |
| 32 | Minnesota Vikings | Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon | Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon |
Mestemaker: first in one, missing in the other
Campbell is open about the gap between his own grade and his projection. “My mock draft is based on what I think teams will do, and not what I think they should do,” he writes, adding that Mestemaker “reminds this analyst of Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch, but he is the consensus prospect that is likely to be the first quarterback drafted next April.” He credits Mestemaker’s arm, size and mobility and says he “locks on his primary read” and needs development.
Walt’s first quarterback is Notre Dame’s CJ Carr at No. 3 to Miami. “They need a franchise quarterback, and Malik Willis isn’t it,” he writes of the Dolphins, adding that the top quarterback in the class “may not be Arch Manning anymore” and that he now thinks Manning “may return to school for another year.” Walt’s other first-round passers are Miami’s Darian Mensah at No. 6 to Arizona, Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss at No. 7 to the Jets, Oregon’s Dante Moore at No. 14 to Cleveland and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers at No. 24 to Pittsburgh.
Campbell also has five quarterbacks in Round 1, but a different five: Mestemaker fifth, Mensah sixth to Arizona, Carr seventh to the Jets, Moore 14th to Cleveland and Chambliss 24th to Pittsburgh. Sellers slides to No. 64, the last pick of his second round, and Manning is not in either of Campbell’s two rounds.
Carr to the Jets and the three New York picks
Campbell’s biggest quarterback move is swapping Carr and Mensah from his October 23 version, when Mensah went to the Jets and Carr to the Cardinals. “I could see Aaron Glenn loving Carr’s intangibles, intelligence, poise, and ability to distribute the ball accurately,” he writes, noting that Glenn has close ties at Notre Dame. He lists Carr at 67 percent completions for 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception this season, plus three rushing scores.
Whoever the quarterback is, the two mocks fill the Jets’ other two picks with the same players. Walt takes Chambliss at No. 7, Georgia corner Ellis Robinson IV at No. 9 and Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam at No. 12; Campbell takes Carr, then Gilliam at No. 9 as a replacement for Quinnen Williams and Robinson at No. 12 as “a true replacement for Sauce Gardner.”
Where they split
Only five picks match slot for slot: Smith at No. 1, Mensah at No. 6, Texas receiver Cam Coleman at No. 13 to the Raiders, Moore at No. 14 and Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson at No. 32 to Minnesota. Twenty-six players appear in both first rounds.
The widest gap is Texas tackle Trevor Goosby. Walt has him fifth to the Eagles as a future starter at tackle, calling him “a phenomenal athlete who can take care of speed rushers.” Campbell has him 23rd to Cincinnati, and Dane Brugler said on Saturday that he does not see Goosby as a first-round pick after a poor season and medical concerns.
Walt moved Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons up to No. 2 for Tennessee, saying Simmons has “explosive pass-rushing ability with a non-stop motor” but will face questions about his “celebration” against the Volunteers. Campbell has Notre Dame corner Leonard Moore second and Simmons third. Walt also has Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy going 11th to Houston, a player Campbell holds until early in the second round.
Six players are only in Walt’s first round: Lacy, Sellers, Miami edge Damon Wilson II, Notre Dame edge Boubacar Traore, Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone and Miami defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. Six are only in Campbell’s: Mestemaker, Indiana receiver Nick Marsh, Oregon defensive tackle Bear Alexander, Minnesota guard Greg Johnson, Utah tackle Zereoue Williams and Arizona State receiver Reed Harris.
What changed in Campbell’s update
Compared with his October 23 version, Campbell moved Indiana receiver Charlie Becker to Washington at No. 4, gave Tampa Bay South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart at No. 8, sent Mississippi State corner Kelley Jones to New Orleans at No. 10, put LSU tackle Jordan Seaton with Atlanta at No. 15 and sent Rutgers receiver KJ Duff to Baltimore at No. 16. Smith still goes first; Campbell lists him at 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and keeps comparing him to Julio Jones.
Both mocks came out before college Week 9, when Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State’s 30-18 loss at USC, and before NFL Week 8 reshuffled the order. Walt’s order will move with his next power rankings.
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