Josh Edwards’ 2027 mock draft: Drew Mestemaker goes No. 1 to the Dolphins, Austin Simmons is second and Arch Manning and CJ Carr stay in school

Josh Edwards’ new 2027 mock draft, posted Monday, October 19, opens with Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker going first to the Miami Dolphins and Missouri’s Austin Simmons second to the Arizona Cardinals, which leaves Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the best player in the class in his view, for the Tennessee Titans at No. 3.

The board rests on two assumptions. Edwards projects that Texas’ Arch Manning and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr go back to school, so neither appears, and he set the order by reversing sportsbook Super Bowl odds as of October 17 rather than by record. That is why the 0-6 Los Angeles Chargers pick sixth behind the 0-5 Dolphins: the books, he wrote, “have more confidence in Los Angeles’ ability to find a win over the course of the season.”

Edwards’ first round

*The mock labels both No. 9 and No. 15 as Atlanta picks and shows no New Orleans Saints selection; the Saints are the one club not otherwise accounted for in Round 1.

Five quarterbacks, starting at the top

“To this point in the college football season, Drew Mestemaker has performed like the best quarterback prospect,” Edwards wrote, adding that Malik Willis’ contract does not stop the Dolphins from pressing the reset button. Mestemaker went 22 of 34 for 365 yards and three touchdowns against Houston on Saturday.

Simmons at No. 2 is the boldest call on the board: the prospect ranking printed beside the pick lists him 100th overall and 10th among quarterbacks. Edwards concedes Saturday “was hardly Austin Simmons’ best day of the season,” but calls him a big quarterback with a strong arm who throws with touch and anticipation, and points to Ty Simpson, whose injury-hit second half did not stop the Rams from taking him 13th overall last spring. “All it takes is one team to believe in the talent,” he wrote.

Miami’s Darian Mensah goes fourth to the New York Jets. Edwards admits he came into the season “relatively low” on Mensah but likes how he steps up from pressure and targets all three levels, and notes he has been given 2.72 seconds to throw, eighth-best among college quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss goes 22nd to the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings, whose record Edwards calls “more in spite of the quarterback play than in combination,” and Oregon’s Dante Moore goes 30th to the Cleveland Browns with the pick from the Rams. Moore, Edwards wrote, “may be better off taking his chances in the NFL” than returning to an Oregon team that has fallen short of expectations or transferring.

Smith at three, and the Jets’ haul

Smith “is the best player in this draft class, but he lasts until No. 3 overall because teams have a need at quarterback,” Edwards wrote, reuniting him with former Ohio State teammate Carnell Tate in Tennessee. Smith has topped 150 receiving yards in four games this season.

The Jets pick three times in the first round: Mensah at 4, Clemson cornerback Ashton Hampton at 10 with the Colts’ pick and Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone at 17 with the Packers’ pick. That haul “would certainly make next season interesting,” Edwards wrote. Cleveland picks twice. Edwards says the Browns need a quarterback beyond this season but are better off at another position at No. 5, so they take Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who has 10.5 sacks, more than half of them against Tennessee. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore, also in the mix for Cleveland, goes next to the Chargers.

By position and by school

Quarterback and receiver lead with five first-round picks each. Edge rusher, cornerback and offensive tackle have four apiece, defensive line three, tight end and safety two each, and interior line, linebacker and running back one apiece; Florida’s Jadan Baugh, at 21 to the New England Patriots, is the only back. Texas places four players (Colin Simmons, Cam Coleman, Melvin Siani and Trevor Goosby), Notre Dame three (Leonard Moore, Boubacar Traore and Brauntae Johnson), and Indiana, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia two each.

Every team makes at least one pick. The three clubs without a first-rounder get second-round selections: the Colts take Arizona State receiver Reed Harris at 42, the Packers take Notre Dame interior lineman Anthonie Knapp at 49, and the Rams take Texas A&M receiver Mario Craver at 62.

Edwards’ board is a long way from Alec Elijah’s mock from two days earlier, which opened with Colin Simmons, had Mestemaker 14th and put Arch Manning in the top 10. The 2027 draft is set for April 29 to May 1 on the National Mall in Washington.