Brian Bosarge’s 2027 mock 4.0 sends Darian Mensah to the Dolphins at No. 3 — and leaves Arch Manning for Cleveland at 13

Brian Bosarge’s Draft Countdown mock 4.0, posted Wednesday, Oct. 14, keeps Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith at No. 1 for the Tennessee Titans — then breaks from most of the boards we have already covered. Miami’s Darian Mensah is the first quarterback off the board at No. 3 to the Dolphins, Texas’ Arch Manning slides to Cleveland at No. 13, and Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker does not appear in the first round at all.

Bosarge sets the pick order from Tankathon’s board and notes traded capital, including a three-pick Jets haul and multiple Day 1 swings for Cleveland. Full write-ups cover the top 10; the rest of Round 1 is listed with landing spots below.

Brian Bosarge’s Round 1

1. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
2. Los Angeles Chargers: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
3. Miami Dolphins: Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
4. Houston Texans: Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
6. Arizona Cardinals: Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
7. New Orleans Saints: Will Echols, DL, Ole Miss
8. Washington Commanders: Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
9. New York Jets (from Dallas): Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina
11. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Chris Cole, LB, Georgia
12. New York Jets: Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
13. Cleveland Browns (from Los Angeles Rams): Arch Manning, QB, Texas
14. Atlanta Falcons: Yhonzae Pierre, EDGE, Alabama
15. Cincinnati Bengals: Kelly Jones, CB, Mississippi State
16. Pittsburgh Steelers: CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
17. Cleveland Browns: Trevor Lauck, OT, Iowa
18. Seattle Seahawks: Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB, Notre Dame
19. Carolina Panthers: Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson
20. Las Vegas Raiders: Boubacar Traore, EDGE, Notre Dame
21. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay): Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama
22. Denver Broncos: K.J. Bolden, S, Georgia
23. Chicago Bears: Zabien Brown, CB, Alabama
24. New England Patriots: Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU
25. Detroit Lions: Xavier Gilliam, DL, Tennessee
26. New York Giants: Princewill Umanmielen, EDGE, LSU
27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Lance Heard, OT, Kentucky
28. Buffalo Bills: Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
29. Baltimore Ravens: Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia
30. Minnesota Vikings: Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
32. San Francisco 49ers: Kade Pieper, IOL, Iowa

Mensah first among the quarterbacks

After Smith to Tennessee and Texas edge Colin Simmons to the Chargers at No. 2, Bosarge sends Mensah to Miami at No. 3. His note frames Malik Willis as not the long-term answer and calls Mensah the most impressive quarterback through the first half of the college season — a homecoming pick for a passer who transferred from Tulane to the Hurricanes.

That is the sharpest contrast with Charlie Campbell’s Oct. 9 mock, which put Smith on the Dolphins at No. 1 and left Mensah for Cleveland at No. 21. Gordon McGuinness and Brent Sobleski both had Drew Mestemaker as Miami’s early quarterback instead. Bosarge simply never uses a first-round pick on Mestemaker.

Manning to Cleveland at 13; Jets take three

Arch Manning does not go until No. 13, where Cleveland uses the Rams’ pick. That is later than Campbell (No. 7 to Arizona) and a full round earlier than boards that leave him out of Round 1 entirely, such as McGuinness and Sobleski. Bosarge still takes four other quarterbacks in the first round: Mensah at 3, Oregon’s Dante Moore to the Jets at 9, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr to Pittsburgh at 16, and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss to Minnesota at 30.

The Jets own three first-round selections on this board — Moore at 9 (from Dallas), Georgia linebacker Chris Cole at 11 (from Indianapolis), and Indiana receiver Charlie Becker at 12 — the same multi-pick theme tracked in the popular-pick simulator. Bosarge’s note on Moore mentions concussion protocol after a hit against USC and a rough start to 2026, while still projecting the Jets will take a quarterback with one of their three picks.

Simmons, Goosby and Stewart

Simmons at No. 2 to the Chargers is Bosarge’s way of rebuilding Justin Herbert’s defense without moving off the franchise quarterback. Houston then takes Texas tackle Trevor Goosby at No. 4 as the best tackle available. Philadelphia grabs South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart at No. 10 — a rebound from Campbell’s No. 19 fall and closer to Brian Lamb’s top-50 board, where Stewart sat No. 1 overall.

Other top-10 names: Notre Dame corner Leonard Moore to Tampa Bay at 5, LSU tackle Jordan Seaton to Arizona at 6 (with Bosarge noting he is not yet convinced Seaton is a true top-10 talent), Ole Miss defensive lineman Will Echols to New Orleans at 7, and Texas receiver Cam Coleman to Washington at 8.

How Bosarge compares on Mensah, Manning and Mestemaker

Here is where four headline prospects land on Bosarge’s Oct. 14 first round versus the other mocks already on the site.

Prospect	Bosarge (Oct. 14)	Campbell (Oct. 9)	McGuinness	Sobleski
Darian Mensah	3, Dolphins	21, Browns	Not early QB1	Not early QB1
Arch Manning	13, Browns	7, Cardinals	Not in Round 1	Not in Round 1
Drew Mestemaker	Not in Round 1	Not in Round 1	4, Dolphins	3, Dolphins
Jeremiah Smith	1, Titans	1, Dolphins	1, Titans	1, Titans
Colin Simmons	2, Chargers	2, Buccaneers	6, Cardinals	5, Buccaneers

Bosarge is alone in that group in making Mensah the first quarterback and in keeping Manning inside Round 1 while still leaving Mestemaker out. For the wider board mix, see the 2027 consensus big board and Ryan Wilson and Ran Carthon’s mock.

What to watch this weekend

• Ohio State at Indiana — Smith (No. 1) faces a Hoosiers group that also includes Charlie Becker (No. 12) and Nick Marsh (No. 28) on this board.
• Notre Dame at BYU — Leonard Moore (No. 5), Carr (No. 16), Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (No. 18) and Boubacar Traore (No. 20) are all first-round names here.
• Alabama at Tennessee — Yhonzae Pierre (No. 14) and Ryan Coleman-Williams (No. 21) are on Alabama’s side; Xavier Gilliam (No. 25) is Tennessee’s Day 1 name.
• Thursday Night Football, Seattle at Denver — kickoff Friday about 3:15 a.m. Cairo. Any swing in the NFL standings can reshuffle Tankathon’s order before Bosarge’s next update.

Mel Kiper Jr.’s next top-25 board is still the next big public ranking to watch. Until then, Bosarge’s Oct. 14 mock is the clearest recent board that crowns Mensah as the first quarterback and parks Manning in the teens.