Ryan Wilson and Ran Carthon’s first in-season 2027 mock draft: Jeremiah Smith to the Titans, six QBs in Round 1 and no Arch Manning

Ryan Wilson and Ran Carthon have done their first in-season mock draft of the 2027 cycle, and it starts with Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith going to the Tennessee Titans at No. 1. Six quarterbacks go in the first round, but none of them go in the top five, and Texas quarterback Arch Manning is not picked at all.

Wilson, a lead draft analyst, and Carthon, the former Titans general manager, took turns on their With the First Pick podcast on Wednesday. Wilson made the odd-numbered picks and Carthon the even ones, using the current draft order. Wilson summed it up on X afterward: six quarterbacks in Round 1, and one big name missing.

The first round

Pick	Team	Player	Pos.	School	Picked by
1	Tennessee Titans	Jeremiah Smith	WR	Ohio State	Wilson
2	Los Angeles Chargers	Leonard Moore	CB	Notre Dame	Carthon
3	Miami Dolphins	Colin Simmons	EDGE	Texas	Wilson
4	Houston Texans	Jordan Seaton	OT	LSU	Carthon
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dylan Stewart	EDGE	South Carolina	Wilson
6	Arizona Cardinals	Darian Mensah	QB	Miami	Carthon
7	New Orleans Saints	Will Echoles	DT	Ole Miss	Wilson
8	Washington Commanders	Charlie Becker	WR	Indiana	Carthon
9	New York Jets (via Dallas)	Drew Mestemaker	QB	Oklahoma State	Wilson
10	Philadelphia Eagles	Trevor Goosby	OT	Texas	Carthon
11	New York Jets (via Indianapolis)	Cam Coleman	WR	Texas	Wilson
12	New York Jets	Ashton Hampton	CB	Clemson	Carthon
13	Cleveland Browns (via L.A. Rams)	Trinidad Chambliss	QB	Ole Miss	Wilson
14	Atlanta Falcons	Dante Moore	QB	Oregon	Carthon
15	Cincinnati Bengals	David Stone	DT	Oklahoma	Wilson
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jayden Maiava	QB	USC	Carthon
17	Cleveland Browns	Kelley Jones	CB	Mississippi State	Wilson
18	Seattle Seahawks	Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR	Alabama	Carthon
19	Carolina Panthers	Chris Cole	LB	Georgia	Wilson
20	Las Vegas Raiders	Deuce Alexander	WR	Ole Miss	Carthon
21	Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay)	Xavier Gilliam	DT	Tennessee	Wilson
22	Denver Broncos	Jamari Johnson	TE	Oregon	Carthon
23	Chicago Bears	Will Heldt	EDGE	Clemson	Wilson
24	New England Patriots	Yhonzae Pierre	EDGE	Alabama	Carthon
25	Detroit Lions	KJ Bolden	S	Georgia	Wilson
26	New York Giants	Jadan Baugh	RB	Florida	Carthon
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	LB	Notre Dame	Wilson
28	Buffalo Bills	Ty Benefield	S	LSU	Carthon
29	Baltimore Ravens	Trevor Lauck	OT	Iowa	Wilson
30	Minnesota Vikings	CJ Carr	QB	Notre Dame	Carthon
31	Kansas City Chiefs	Trey’Dez Green	TE	LSU	Wilson
32	San Francisco 49ers	Anthonie Knapp	IOL	Notre Dame	Carthon

Jeremiah Smith over a new quarterback for Tennessee

Wilson opened with the question hanging over the Titans: should they already be thinking about replacing Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in 2025? Both said no. Carthon pointed out that Ward is learning his fifth offense in five years, going back to Incarnate Word, Washington State, Miami, Brian Callahan’s first Titans offense and now a new system in his second NFL season. “People need to pump the brakes,” he said.

So Wilson took Smith, whom he called an alien from outer space, and said Tennessee should help Ward rather than give up on him. “You can’t just keep blowing up the farm and being surprised that he can’t grow crops,” Wilson said. Carthon added that if the Titans finish with the top pick, he thinks they would trade down and collect more picks.

The rest of the top five went to non-quarterbacks. Carthon gave the Los Angeles Chargers Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore, because he did not see them taking an edge rusher in the first round in back-to-back years. Wilson sent Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons to the Miami Dolphins rather than force a quarterback. Carthon said Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley would welcome that, pointing to how the Micah Parsons trade lifted Green Bay’s defense while Hafley was there. Carthon took LSU tackle Jordan Seaton for the Houston Texans, whose first win of the season dropped them from first to fourth in the order.

At No. 5, Wilson gave the Tampa Bay Buccaneers South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart. He said Stewart will face questions about his suspension and the punch he threw at an Alabama tight end, but that he played like a motivated man when he came back. Wilson compared his body type to James Pearce Jr. Carthon compared him to Danielle Hunter and said Stewart is probably a better pass rusher than Hunter was coming out.

Six quarterbacks, starting at No. 6

Miami’s Darian Mensah was the first quarterback taken, at No. 6 to the Arizona Cardinals. Carthon liked how he would fit in their offense on bootlegs and nakeds, along with his accuracy and mobility. He said that in real life, teams would see Arizona and Miami as quarterback buyers and trades would start around that range.

Wilson took Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker for the New York Jets at No. 9. He said that if Manning had put Mestemaker’s tape from the previous Saturday on film this year, he would be QB1 without much argument. Wilson still has Mensah as his QB1 for now. The Jets also took Texas receiver Cam Coleman at No. 11 and Clemson cornerback Ashton Hampton at No. 12.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss went 13th to the Cleveland Browns, with the pick they got from the Rams. Wilson said he trusted Chambliss, as an older player, to handle the pressure of playing in Cleveland. Carthon said he would have leaned toward Oregon’s Dante Moore. Moore went next, at No. 14 to the Atlanta Falcons. Carthon said Moore fits Kevin Stefanski’s rhythm-and-timing offense.

USC’s Jayden Maiava went 16th to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Carthon was thinking about Florida running back Jadan Baugh there, but went with the quarterback that Wilson, a Steelers fan, wanted. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr was the sixth and last quarterback, at No. 30 to the Minnesota Vikings, where Kyler Murray is on a one-year deal. Carthon said he does not expect Carr to leave school, and if he does, he will probably go higher than 30.

Where is Arch Manning?

At the end, Wilson asked Carthon why Manning was left out and whether he goes back to Texas for a fifth year. “Yes,” Carthon said. “At this point you almost have to, just because we haven’t seen the consistency yet.” Carthon said he thinks Manning will get better, and that the big thing is how quick and decisive he can be with his decisions. He likes how Manning stands in and climbs the pocket, but said Manning has to learn when to just throw the ball away.

Wilson wrote a separate column on Wednesday about whether a fifth year could fix Manning. He had already left Manning out of his first mock draft of the fall, before Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Oklahoma. In that game, Manning threw a 41-yard touchdown pass to Cam Coleman and then threw two fourth-quarter interceptions. “He has not played up to being a first-round pick,” Wilson said in a video clip. “Right now, I have 5 quarterbacks I would take before [Arch Manning] if the draft were tomorrow.”

Wilson says Manning’s physical talent is not the problem. He points to a 93.1 passing grade on throws of 20 or more yards, with 10 big-time throws on 24 attempts. The trouble comes when his first read is not open. He plays hurried in clean pockets, skips reads and at times seems to see only part of the field. Manning turns 23 in the spring and has made just 20 career starts. He could finish 2026 with 27 to 30, and another season would push him toward 40.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said in June that he would not be surprised if Manning came back in 2027. Earlier this month, Eli Manning told Colin Cowherd that college has value beyond getting ready for the NFL.

Wilson’s history lesson cuts both ways. Jayden Daniels raised his passing grade from 79.1 to 92.0 in his fifth season at LSU, won the Heisman and went No. 2 in 2024. Cam Ward went from 77.5 to 91.7 after moving to Miami and went No. 1 in 2025. But Wilson notes Ward is tied for 51st in EPA per dropback among 56 first-round quarterbacks through 22 starts, so a better final college season does not guarantee NFL success. Bo Nix improved from 79.2 to 92.7 and went 12th. On the other side, Garrett Nussmeier came back to LSU with first-round buzz and fell to the seventh round at No. 249. Spencer Rattler went in the fifth round, and Carson Beck rebuilt his stock at Miami and went 65th.

Former NFL quarterback Danny Kanell put the concern simply: “Ninety percent of playing quarterback is making boring decisions, but making the right decisions.” He said Manning has had the wow plays, but should be getting the other 90% right by now. Wilson’s view is that Manning is more likely to run it back at Texas, and that being 23 with about 40 starts would not stop him from going in the top five. What matters is whether one more year makes his best plays the rule rather than the exception.

Other picks that stand out

Wilson’s surprise pick was Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam at No. 21 to the Dallas Cowboys, with the pick they got from Green Bay for Micah Parsons. Wilson said Gilliam is “juiced up at the snap.” Carthon took Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson for the Denver Broncos at No. 22, gambling that Baugh would still be there four picks later. He was, and Carthon sent the Florida back to the New York Giants at No. 26, calling him the kind of runner a John Harbaugh team is built around.

Wilson gave the Kansas City Chiefs LSU tight end Trey’Dez Green at No. 31 as a possible successor to Travis Kelce. Carthon finished the round with Notre Dame interior lineman Anthonie Knapp for the San Francisco 49ers, to help keep Brock Purdy upright.