Jeremiah Smith is the No. 1 pick in all eight full first-round 2027 mock drafts published since October 23, every one of them sending the Ohio State receiver to the winless Los Angeles Chargers. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker is the first quarterback taken in seven of the eight, Miami’s Darian Mensah has jumped from the middle of the round into the top 10 in most of them, and Arch Manning is left out of Round 1 in five.
The week also brought the biggest quarterback news of the fall: on Monday night, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said he does not expect Dante Moore to play again this season after the concussion he suffered at USC on September 26. Moore still appears in six of the eight first rounds, but the three released since then have him ninth, 24th and out of the round.
This is our second consensus count of the season. The first one, on October 22, averaged 17 full mocks from October 13 to 22. This one uses only first rounds released from October 23 through Wednesday, October 28, so none of the mocks is counted twice.
The eight mocks in this count
The full first rounds come from Luke Easterling (October 23), Charlie Campbell (October 23, with a second round added), Jacob Infante (October 24), Tarringo Basile-Vaughan (October 25), Ethan Woodle (October 26), Lou Pickney (October 27), the DraftBlaster staff (October 27) and Christian Williams (October 28). Cody Williams’ top-10 projection from October 25 is mentioned below but not averaged, and computer-generated mocks are left out.
As in October, a player’s average slot treats any mock that leaves him out of Round 1 as pick No. 40, so a prospect who is missing from several mocks ranks below one who is taken in the 20s every time. The last column is his average in the October 22 count.
Consensus first round, October 23-28
| Rank | Player | Pos. | School | Avg. slot | Pick range | In Round 1 | Oct. 22 avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | 1.0 | 1 | 8 of 8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | Drew Mestemaker | QB | Oklahoma State | 3.4 | 2–7 | 8 of 8 | 6.4 |
| 3 | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas | 3.6 | 2–7 | 8 of 8 | 4.4 |
| 4 | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame | 5.1 | 3–10 | 8 of 8 | 4.3 |
| 5 | Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana | 8.6 | 4–15 | 8 of 8 | 10.9 |
| 6 | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | South Carolina | 9.5 | 4–16 | 8 of 8 | 8.4 |
| 7 | Darian Mensah | QB | Miami | 11.8 | 3–25 | 7 of 8 | 19.9 |
| 8 | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU | 12.0 | 2–22 | 8 of 8 | 11.1 |
| 9 | Ashton Hampton | CB | Clemson | 13.8 | 10–21 | 8 of 8 | 16.9 |
| 10 | Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia | 14.2 | 9–21 | 8 of 8 | 14.4 |
| 11 | Will Echoles | DL | Ole Miss | 14.8 | 5–26 | 8 of 8 | 10.5 |
| 12 | Cam Coleman | WR | Texas | 15.6 | 5–20 | 7 of 8 | 13.9 |
| 13 | CJ Carr | QB | Notre Dame | 17.0 | 6–11 | 6 of 8 | 20.3 |
| 14 | Trevor Goosby | OT | Texas | 17.4 | 6–23 | 7 of 8 | 11.2 |
| 15 | Dante Moore | QB | Oregon | 19.8 | 7–24 | 6 of 8 | 19.0 |
| 16 | Chris Cole | LB | Georgia | 20.5 | 7–29 | 7 of 8 | 21.8 |
| 17 | Nick Marsh | WR | Indiana | 20.8 | 8–30 | 8 of 8 | 24.0 |
| 18 | Greg Johnson | IOL | Minnesota | 21.0 | 16–26 | 8 of 8 | 24.9 |
| 19 | Xavier Gilliam | DL | Tennessee | 21.0 | 8–28 | 6 of 8 | 30.8 |
| 20 | Trinidad Chambliss | QB | Ole Miss | 21.9 | 6–30 | 7 of 8 | 22.7 |
| 21 | Kelley Jones | CB | Mississippi State | 23.1 | 11–25 | 7 of 8 | 25.4 |
| 22 | KJ Bolden | S | Georgia | 23.6 | 18–29 | 8 of 8 | 26.5 |
| 23 | Trey’Dez Green | TE | LSU | 23.8 | 13–22 | 6 of 8 | 26.2 |
| 24 | Jamari Johnson | TE | Oregon | 25.4 | 17–30 | 7 of 8 | 24.2 |
| 25 | Yhonzae Pierre | EDGE | Alabama | 25.8 | 16–28 | 7 of 8 | 21.0 |
| 26 | Zereoue Williams | OT | Utah | 26.8 | 4–31 | 5 of 8 | 35.4 |
| 27 | Jadan Baugh | RB | Florida | 27.5 | 17–32 | 6 of 8 | 27.1 |
| 28 | KJ Duff | WR | Rutgers | 30.0 | 13–31 | 4 of 8 | 35.2 |
| 29 | Arch Manning | QB | Texas | 30.1 | 7–23 | 3 of 8 | 19.1 |
| 30 | Austin Simmons | QB | Missouri | 30.8 | 10–22 | 3 of 8 | 30.9 |
| 31 | Lance Heard | OT | Kentucky | 30.8 | 5–27 | 3 of 8 | 37.9 |
| 32 | Ryan Coleman-Williams | WR | Alabama | 31.5 | 12–31 | 4 of 8 | 34.4 |
Smith, Mestemaker and Colin Simmons at the top
Smith is now unanimous. In the October 22 count he went first in 14 of 18 mocks and as low as third; here he is first in all eight, always to the Chargers, the NFL’s only winless team.
Mestemaker’s average slot improved from 6.4 to 3.4. He goes second to the Miami Dolphins in Easterling’s, Infante’s and Basile-Vaughan’s mocks, third to Miami in Pickney’s and Christian Williams’, second to the Tennessee Titans in Woodle’s, sixth to Philadelphia in Campbell’s and seventh to the New York Jets in the DraftBlaster mock, the only one of the eight that takes another quarterback before him.
Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, at 3.6, is the only other player taken in the top seven of all eight mocks. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore is next at 5.1 and never falls past No. 10.
The quarterback race
| Quarterback | School | In Round 1 | Avg. pick when taken | Highest pick | First QB taken | Oct. 22: in Round 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | 8 of 8 | 3.4 | 2 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 17 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | 7 of 8 | 7.7 | 3 | 1 of 8 | 12 of 17 |
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | 6 of 8 | 9.3 | 6 | 0 of 8 | 11 of 17 |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | 6 of 8 | 13.0 | 7 | 0 of 8 | 14 of 17 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | 7 of 8 | 19.3 | 6 | 0 of 8 | 12 of 17 |
| Arch Manning | Texas | 3 of 8 | 13.7 | 7 | 0 of 8 | 12 of 17 |
| Austin Simmons | Missouri | 3 of 8 | 15.3 | 10 | 0 of 8 | 7 of 17 |
| Jayden Maiava | USC | 1 of 8 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 of 8 | — |
Mensah is the biggest mover among the quarterbacks. He was in 12 of 17 first rounds in the October 22 count, with an average slot of 19.9; now he is in seven of eight with an average of 11.8, going third overall in three mocks, and the DraftBlaster staff made him the first quarterback off the board, at No. 3 to Miami. Christian Williams leaves him out, and Infante sends him 25th. Mensah threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns as top-ranked Miami beat Pittsburgh on Saturday, and he led the risers in our Week 8 draft stock report.
Manning is in three of the eight first rounds: seventh to Arizona in Woodle’s, 11th to Cleveland in Easterling’s and 23rd in Basile-Vaughan’s. Campbell, Infante, Pickney, Christian Williams and the DraftBlaster staff all leave him out. On October 22 he was missing from five of 18.
Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss is in seven of the eight despite three interceptions in Saturday’s 34-27 loss at Texas, with picks ranging from sixth in Infante’s mock to 30th in Easterling’s and Basile-Vaughan’s. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is in six, always between sixth and 11th. Pickney’s mock has only three quarterbacks in Round 1, while Easterling’s has seven.
Dante Moore’s season is over
“I’m not anticipating him being back this season,” Lanning said at his weekly press conference on Monday, October 26. Moore was hurt in the second quarter of the 41-27 win at USC when he took a hit while sliding at the end of a run, and he has missed Oregon’s three games since. Lanning said Oregon got clarity on his condition last week, that Moore will still be able to take part in practice in a controlled setting, and that he will make a full recovery.
“I think we all can acknowledge that Dante’s a great player, and he’ll get the opportunity to be drafted,” Lanning said, while adding that he has not spoken with Moore about whether he will enter the draft and that it is a decision for a later date. Moore completed 69 of 99 passes for 926 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions this season, after throwing for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025.
In the five mocks released from October 23 to 26, Moore went seventh (Easterling), 10th (Basile-Vaughan) and 14th (Campbell and Woodle), and Infante had already left him out. The DraftBlaster staff, who had him second to Miami a week earlier, moved him to ninth with Tampa Bay and called the pick especially conditional because evaluators have lost the chance to see more 2026 games. Christian Williams has him 24th, and Pickney’s first round has no room for him. Jeff Risdon’s big board, published before the news, still had Moore third overall.
Other movers
Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam went from 30.8 to 21.0 and is now in six of the eight first rounds, three of them with the Jets, who hold three picks in the top 12 of the current order. Utah tackle Zereoue Williams, a riser in several stock reports this month, is in five of the eight, as high as fourth to Philadelphia in Christian Williams’ mock.
Texas tackle Trevor Goosby went the other way, from an average of 11.2 to 17.4 and out of one first round entirely, and Ole Miss defensive tackle Will Echoles slipped from 10.5 to 14.8. Indiana receiver Charlie Becker climbed from 10.9 to 8.6 and goes as high as fourth to Tampa Bay in Infante’s mock.
Cody Williams’ top 10 from October 25, which is not in the averages, has Smith first, Mestemaker second to Tennessee and Chambliss third to Miami, ahead of Simmons and LSU tackle Jordan Seaton.
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