Two weeks ago, Jacob Infante had Arch Manning going fourth overall to the Miami Dolphins. In his new first-round 2027 mock draft, published Saturday, the Texas quarterback is not in the first round at all, and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, who was not in Infante’s October 10 first round either, goes to Miami at No. 2.
Oregon’s Dante Moore, 21st in the earlier version, also drops out. Five quarterbacks still go in Round 1: Mestemaker, Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss at No. 6, Missouri’s Austin Simmons at No. 10, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr at No. 11 and Miami’s Darian Mensah at No. 25. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith stays at No. 1, now with the Los Angeles Chargers.
The full first round
Infante used the draft order as of October 24. The last column shows where each player went in his October 10 mock. The order changed between the two versions, so compare pick numbers rather than teams.
| Pick | Team | Player | Pos. | School | Oct. 10 pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | 1 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | Drew Mestemaker | QB | Oklahoma State | Not in Round 1 |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas | 2 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana | 5 |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame | 3 |
| 6 | New York Jets (via Cowboys) | Trinidad Chambliss | QB | Ole Miss | 9 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU | 15 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | South Carolina | 8 |
| 9 | New York Jets (via Colts) | Will Echoles | DT | Ole Miss | 10 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | Austin Simmons | QB | Missouri | 6 |
| 11 | Cleveland Browns (via Rams) | CJ Carr | QB | Notre Dame | 13 |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia | 11 |
| 13 | New York Jets | Ashton Hampton | CB | Clemson | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | Lance Heard | OT | Kentucky | 31 |
| 15 | Las Vegas Raiders | Cam Coleman | WR | Texas | 7 |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | Greg Johnson | OG | Minnesota | 12 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | Chris Cole | LB | Georgia | 20 |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | Jadan Baugh | RB | Florida | 22 |
| 19 | New York Giants | Xavier Gilliam | DT | Tennessee | 24 |
| 20 | Carolina Panthers | Jamari Johnson | TE | Oregon | 18 |
| 21 | Detroit Lions | KJ Bolden | S | Georgia | 16 |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Goosby | OT | Texas | 19 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | Yhonzae Pierre | EDGE | Alabama | 28 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | Kelley Jones | CB | Mississippi State | 30 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Darian Mensah | QB | Miami | Not in Round 1 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa | LB | Notre Dame | Not in Round 1 |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys (via Packers) | Audavion Collins | CB | Penn State | Not in Round 1 |
| 28 | Chicago Bears | David Stone | DT | Oklahoma | 23 |
| 29 | Buffalo Bills | Tae Johnson | S | Notre Dame | 17 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | Nick Marsh | WR | Indiana | Not in Round 1 |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Zereoue Williams | OT | Utah | Not in Round 1 |
| 32 | Minnesota Vikings | Kingston Lopa | S | California | 26 |
Mestemaker from nowhere to No. 2
Infante wrote that if Miami ends up with a top-two pick, the question will be whether to draft a replacement for Malik Willis, even though the Dolphins are tied to Willis contractually in 2027. After a tough start against Tulsa, he wrote, Mestemaker “has made a lot of money with how he’s performed in 2026,” calling him a gutsy, strong-armed passer with poise under pressure who is now “firmly in QB1 conversations.”
At No. 1, Infante expects the Chargers would probably trade down if they trust Justin Herbert to bounce back next year. If they stay put, he wrote, the best player available is clear, and it is Smith. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons goes third to the Tennessee Titans, Indiana receiver Charlie Becker fourth to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore fifth to the Washington Commanders.
The quarterbacks, then and now
| Quarterback | School | Oct. 24 pick | Oct. 10 pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | 2 (Dolphins) | Not in Round 1 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | 6 (Jets) | 9 |
| Austin Simmons | Missouri | 10 (Cardinals) | 6 |
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | 11 (Browns) | 13 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | 25 (Steelers) | Not in Round 1 |
| Arch Manning | Texas | Not in Round 1 | 4 |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | Not in Round 1 | 21 |
On October 10, Infante wrote that Miami “might not be able to pass up their QB1 if he’s available” and gave the Dolphins Manning. This time Manning appears only as Cam Coleman’s quarterback, in the write-up for the Texas receiver at No. 15 to the Las Vegas Raiders. Going into Saturday, Manning had completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in six games.
Chambliss moved up three spots to No. 6, the first of the New York Jets’ three first-round picks. “Though he’s undersized and older for a draft prospect, his tape has been super fun to watch this year,” Infante wrote. Mensah, who was not in the first round on October 10, goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 25. Infante wrote that Mensah “falls a little because his physical attributes aren’t elite,” but called him one of the most accurate passers in college football. On Carr, he noted there is no guarantee the redshirt sophomore declares.
Manning and Chambliss meet Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (2:30 a.m. Sunday in Cairo).
Lance Heard jumps 17 spots
The biggest riser is Kentucky tackle Lance Heard, from 31st to 14th with the Atlanta Falcons. “An argument can be made that Lance Heard is the nastiest offensive lineman in the 2027 NFL Draft,” Infante wrote, adding that the more he watches Heard, “the more sold I am on him as a first-round prospect.” LSU tackle Jordan Seaton rose from 15th to seventh with the Houston Texans.
Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam moved from 24th to 19th with the New York Giants. On Saturday, Jordan Reid wrote that no defensive prospect in the country has helped his draft stock more this season. Reid ranks Gilliam 12th overall in his latest top 50. Mississippi State cornerback Kelley Jones rose from 30th to 24th (Cleveland Browns), and Alabama edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre from 28th to 23rd (Baltimore Ravens).
Who fell
Notre Dame safety Tae Johnson fell the furthest among players who stayed in the first round, from 17th to 29th (Buffalo Bills). Texas receiver Cam Coleman slid from seventh to 15th, Cal safety Kingston Lopa from 26th to 32nd (Minnesota Vikings) and Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone from 23rd to 28th (Chicago Bears). Infante noted Lopa already has five interceptions this season and stands 6-foot-5.
Besides Manning and Moore, Iowa interior lineman Kade Pieper, Miami defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr., Notre Dame guard Anthonie Knapp and Missouri lineman Cayden Green also dropped out. Their places went to Mestemaker, Mensah, Notre Dame linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (26th, Denver Broncos), Penn State cornerback Audavion Collins (27th, Dallas Cowboys), Indiana receiver Nick Marsh (30th, San Francisco 49ers) and Utah tackle Zereoue Williams (31st, Kansas City Chiefs).
Leaving Manning out puts Infante at the tougher end of the range. In our tally of 17 full first-round mocks published October 13-22, Manning missed the first round in five. Luke Easterling’s latest mock, published Friday, still had him 11th to Cleveland.
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