Three new 2027 mock drafts came out on Wednesday, the first full projections since Tuesday’s trade deadline moved picks to Philadelphia and Tennessee. Mike Renner did three rounds.
They agree on more than usual at the top. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith goes first to the Los Angeles Chargers in all three. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons goes seventh to Washington and Indiana receiver Charlie Becker goes eighth to Tampa Bay in all three. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker goes third or fourth in all three.
Where they split is Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr. He goes third in one mock, fourth in another and 26th in the third.
The top 16, side by side
| Pick | Team | Renner | Four-scout mock | DeLeone and Roberts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chargers | Jeremiah Smith, WR | Jeremiah Smith, WR | Jeremiah Smith, WR |
| 2 | Titans | Dylan Stewart, EDGE | Leonard Moore, CB | Leonard Moore, CB |
| 3 | Dolphins | Drew Mestemaker, QB | Drew Mestemaker, QB | CJ Carr, QB |
| 4 | Jets (from Colts) | CJ Carr, QB | Arch Manning, QB | Drew Mestemaker, QB |
| 5 | Eagles | Arch Manning, QB | Jordan Seaton, OT | Dylan Stewart, EDGE |
| 6 | Jets | Leonard Moore, CB | Ashton Hampton, CB | Chris Cole, LB |
| 7 | Commanders | Colin Simmons, EDGE | Colin Simmons, EDGE | Colin Simmons, EDGE |
| 8 | Buccaneers | Charlie Becker, WR | Charlie Becker, WR | Charlie Becker, WR |
| 9 | Cardinals | Trinidad Chambliss, QB | Darian Mensah, QB | Darian Mensah, QB |
| 10 | Falcons | Xavier Gilliam, DT | Zereoue Williams, OT | Zereoue Williams, OT |
| 11 | Texans | Jordan Seaton, OT | Dylan Stewart, EDGE | Jordan Seaton, OT |
| 12 | Saints | Chris Cole, LB | Will Echoles, DT | Xavier Gilliam, DT |
| 13 | Jets (from Cowboys) | Will Echoles, DT | Xavier Gilliam, DT | Ashton Hampton, CB |
| 14 | Ravens | Trey’Dez Green, TE | Ellis Robinson IV, CB | Trey’Dez Green, TE |
| 15 | Raiders | Jackson Harris, WR | David Stone, DT | Reed Harris, WR |
| 16 | Browns | Dante Moore, QB | Dante Moore, QB | Boubacar Traore, EDGE |
All three use the same order for the first 27 picks. It differs at the bottom of the round, where DeLeone and Roberts swap the Vikings and Titans at 28 and 30 and the 49ers and Bills at 31 and 32. For the order after the deadline and which teams hold extra picks, see our 2027 draft order tracker.
Where the quarterbacks go
| Quarterback | Renner | Four-scout mock | DeLeone and Roberts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State | 3, Dolphins | 3, Dolphins | 4, Jets (from Colts) |
| CJ Carr, Notre Dame | 4, Jets (from Colts) | 26, Steelers | 3, Dolphins |
| Arch Manning, Texas | 5, Eagles | 4, Jets (from Colts) | Not in Round 1 |
| Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss | 9, Cardinals | Not in Round 1 | 26, Steelers |
| Darian Mensah, Miami | 42, Buccaneers | 9, Cardinals | 9, Cardinals |
| Dante Moore, Oregon | 16, Browns | 16, Browns | Not in Round 1 |
| LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina | Not in three rounds | 25, Eagles (from Jaguars) | 18, Browns (from Rams) |
| First-round quarterbacks | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Renner sent Mestemaker to Miami because of the Dolphins’ situation at the position. “With Malik Willis going to IR Tuesday, the chances the Dolphins are the de facto landing spot for QB1 only go up,” he wrote. He added that Mestemaker has “a penchant for putting the ball in harm’s way” that evaluators will forgive because of his big plays. The scouts made the same pick and called him the class’ top quarterback, with “a high ceiling and solid floor.”
On Carr, Renner liked the fit with a Jets roster full of pass catchers: “What I love about Carr is that he doesn’t take sacks (two all season) or throw picks (one all season).” The scouts saw a lower ceiling and let him fall to Pittsburgh at No. 26. They compared his best outcome to “a more athletic Kirk Cousins” and called him a “point guard-style passer.” DeLeone and Roberts went the other way and made Carr the first quarterback off the board, at No. 3 to Miami.
The scouts’ mock is a big change from their last one, which left several of the top quarterbacks out of the first round. This time they put six in it. They explained that some of the quarterbacks have played better lately, and that too many NFL teams are struggling at the position. Arch Manning went from outside their first round to fourth overall. They said he “didn’t look like a top-five option through the first half of this season” but has put together several strong games since. Renner took Manning one pick later for the Eagles, citing his game against Missouri on Saturday: “Those 43 dropbacks looked like an NFL quarterback.”
Oregon’s Dante Moore goes 16th to Cleveland in two of the mocks, even after the concussion that ended his season. Renner wrote that the Browns are “more than desperate enough to still take a chance on him.” Miami’s Darian Mensah goes ninth to Arizona in two mocks but slides to the second round, 42nd overall to Tampa Bay, in Renner’s.
Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates also had Mestemaker and Carr third and fourth in their midseason top-10 mock on Monday, before the deadline. Renner’s first, third and fourth picks match theirs exactly: Smith, Mestemaker and Carr. The only difference in his top four is at No. 2, where he gives Tennessee South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart instead of Simmons.
What the teams with extra picks get
| Team (picks) | Renner | Four-scout mock | DeLeone and Roberts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets (4, 6, 13) | Carr, Leonard Moore, Echoles | Manning, Hampton, Gilliam | Mestemaker, Cole, Hampton |
| Eagles (5, 25) | Manning, Kade Pieper | Seaton, Sellers | Stewart, Trevor Lauck |
| Browns (16, 18) | Dante Moore, Will Heldt | Dante Moore, Chris Cole | Traore, Sellers |
| Titans (2, 28 or 30) | Stewart, Kelley Jones | Leonard Moore, Elijah Paige | Leonard Moore, Devan Thompkins |
The Titans’ second first-round pick is Chicago’s, from the Jeffery Simmons trade. The Eagles’ extra pick is Jacksonville’s, from the Jordan Davis trade. Our trade deadline ledger walks through all 18 trades. Renner tied his No. 2 pick to the Simmons deal: “After trading away their Jeffery Simmons, there’s no pass-rusher in Tennessee that opposing defenses fear anymore.” Two of the three mocks give the Jets a quarterback with the Colts’ pick, and the third gives them Leonard Moore two picks later.
The scouts made the case for Sellers going to Philadelphia at 25 by pointing to Howie Roseman’s 2020 pick of Jalen Hurts while Carson Wentz was under contract. They called Sellers the prospect with “arguably the highest ceiling” in the class.
Other notes
Texas tackle Trevor Goosby still makes Renner’s first round, at No. 31 to San Francisco, despite the knee injury that ended his season. Renner compared him to Josh Simmons, who stayed in the first round after his own injury. Goosby is not in either of the other two first rounds.
Utah tackle Zereoue Williams, one of the season’s biggest risers, goes 10th to Atlanta in two mocks and 29th to Denver in Renner’s. Apart from Mensah at 42, the only other quarterback in Renner’s three rounds is USC’s Jayden Maiava, 72nd to Atlanta.
The order will move again this weekend. The Chargers, still No. 1, play at Baltimore on Monday night, and our draft order tracker will update after Week 10.
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