Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz has published his top 10 quarterback prospects for the 2027 NFL Draft, and his list starts the same way as most of this month’s mock drafts: Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker is No. 1. What follows is less familiar. Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss is second, Missouri’s Austin Simmons is third, and Texas’ Arch Manning, the preseason favorite to be the first overall pick, is seventh, one spot behind Oregon’s Dante Moore.
The rankings came out on Tuesday, October 27, a day after Oregon coach Dan Lanning said he does not expect Moore to play again this season. Middlehurst-Schwartz describes a class that was supposed to be one of the most captivating in years and is now in “a state of uncertainty.”
Middlehurst-Schwartz’s top 10 quarterbacks
| Rank | Quarterback | School | His Oct. 14 mock | In Round 1 of our 8-mock count | Justin Melo, Oct. 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | 2nd overall (QB1) | 8 of 8 | 1 |
| 2 | Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | 12th (QB4) | 7 of 8 | 6 |
| 3 | Austin Simmons | Missouri | Not in Round 1 | 3 of 8 | 8 |
| 4 | CJ Carr | Notre Dame | 23rd (QB5) | 6 of 8 | 1 |
| 5 | Darian Mensah | Miami | Not in Round 1 | 7 of 8 | 5 |
| 6 | Dante Moore | Oregon | 3rd (QB2) | 6 of 8 | 4 |
| 7 | Arch Manning | Texas | 5th (QB3) | 3 of 8 | 3 |
| 8 | LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina | Not in Round 1 | 0 of 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Brendan Sorsby | — | Not in Round 1 | 0 of 8 | Not ranked |
| 10 | Jayden Maiava | USC | Not in Round 1 | 1 of 8 | 9 |
The fourth column is where each player went in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s own October 14 mock draft. The fifth comes from our count of eight full first-round mocks released October 23-28, and the last is Justin Melo’s mid-October quarterback ranking.
Mestemaker: from a limb to the consensus
“When I pegged Mestemaker as the top quarterback in this class a couple of weeks ago in my October mock draft, it felt like going out on a slight limb. Now, that might be close to the consensus opinion,” Middlehurst-Schwartz writes. He had Mestemaker second overall in that mock, and Mestemaker is now the first quarterback taken in seven of the eight first rounds in our latest count.
He calls the 6-foot-3, 215-pound North Texas transfer the most promising passer in the class, a confident player who can make plays on the move and out of structure as easily as from the pocket. The warning is that his aggression sometimes “tilts into hubris” and may need reining in at the next level. Still, he says a player many expected to be a 2028 prospect is making the strongest case of any quarterback to go in the top five.
Chambliss second, Simmons third
Chambliss was only the fourth quarterback in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s October mock, at No. 12. He now calls him “college football’s premier playmaker at quarterback” and says his performance profile is that of “a clear first-round passer. The only question should be how high he can rise.” The concerns are familiar: Chambliss will turn 25 before his rookie season and is listed at about 6-0. Middlehurst-Schwartz credits the former Division II transfer for his composure under pressure, though he says it has wavered at times this year, and for raising his play against top opponents and late in close games.
The biggest jump on the list is Simmons, who lost the Ole Miss starting job to Chambliss after an ankle injury last season and moved to Missouri. Middlehurst-Schwartz says even Mestemaker’s rise can’t match his. Simmons has thrown 14 touchdown passes, the former college baseball player can fit throws into tight windows and to the sideline with ease, and he is still only 20 after finishing high school two years early. With just nine career starts, though, Middlehurst-Schwartz expects processing problems and says Simmons could end up in the 2028 class instead.
Carr and Mensah in the middle
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, fourth, is the least impressive physical prospect on the list at 6-2 and 215 pounds with middling arm strength, Middlehurst-Schwartz says, but his reading of defenses and pinpoint accuracy set him apart from a group that tends to swing from play to play. He could appeal to teams that want a quarterback ready to play early rather than a project.
Miami’s Darian Mensah is fifth after completing 81.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and one interception. Middlehurst-Schwartz says the schedule so far has made that easy, against outmatched defenses in a scheme built on quick throws to receivers like Malachi Toney, and that arm strength that is “probably passable at best” means the second half of the season will decide whether Mensah keeps climbing or falls. The mock drafts are more confident: Mensah is in seven of the eight first rounds in our count and the first quarterback taken in one, and he led the risers in our Week 8 stock report.
Moore and Manning drop
Moore was the second quarterback, at No. 3 overall, in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s October mock. With his 2026 season over, he says, there is “a distinct lack of resolution” on what should have been one of the easiest evaluations in the class. Moore entered the year needing to show he could handle pressure after his College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Indiana, and his short season added to those concerns. Middlehurst-Schwartz still says Moore should not become an afterthought and could easily end up in the top tier at the position.
Manning went fifth overall in the same mock. He is now seventh, with Middlehurst-Schwartz writing that trying to pin him down from week to week is “an exercise in futility.” He says Manning showed in the win over Ole Miss that he should not be written off and can still hit throws few others can make, but has too often veered into recklessness, and that talk of his pro potential might be worth tabling until he becomes consistent. NFL executives have also questioned whether Manning and other top quarterbacks will even enter the 2027 draft.
Sellers, Sorsby and Maiava round out the top 10
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is eighth after helping the Gamecocks beat Florida and Tennessee. Against Tennessee, he threw a Hail Mary from his own 34-yard line that reached the back of the end zone before halftime and, on third-and-goal in the final two minutes with his team trailing, ran through one tackler and threw himself into the end zone. Middlehurst-Schwartz says he still looks too tentative at times and commits baffling turnovers, so teams may want him to show more growth before he turns pro.
Ninth is Brendan Sorsby, who is not playing this season. Middlehurst-Schwartz calls him the class’s most difficult evaluation: a 6-3, 235-pound passer with mobility and downfield skill who looked like a possible first-round pick before a gambling scandal kept him out of college football, and before a path to the supplemental draft was shut down, leaving him to wait until the spring. Teams that are comfortable with what their research turns up, he says, can’t overlook him.
USC’s Jayden Maiava completes the list. Middlehurst-Schwartz describes the 6-4, 230-pounder as an efficient pocket passer with good touch when everything around him is working, but says he struggles to create when he is knocked out of rhythm and his mechanics can break down. He could draw more interest if several of the top quarterbacks return to school.
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