Arch Manning, CJ Carr left out of Brent Sobleski’s latest 2027 first-round mock as Drew Mestemaker goes third

Brent Sobleski’s latest first-round projection for the 2027 NFL Draft, built with scouts Dame Parson, Brandon Thorn, Daniel Harms and Matt Holder, leaves three of the cycle’s most discussed quarterbacks off the board entirely. Texas’ Arch Manning, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin are not among the 32 picks. The writers do not see them as first-round talents at this point of the season.

Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith still goes first overall, to the Tennessee Titans. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore is second, to the Los Angeles Chargers. The first quarterback is Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, third to the Miami Dolphins.

Top 10

1. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
2. Los Angeles Chargers: Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
3. Miami Dolphins: Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
4. Houston Texans: Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
6. Arizona Cardinals: Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina
7. New Orleans Saints: Will Echoles, DL, Ole Miss
8. Washington Commanders: Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
9. New York Jets (via Dallas): Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthonie Knapp, IOL, Notre Dame

No Manning, Carr or Sayin in Round 1

Sobleski wrote that the class looks drastically different six weeks into the college season than it did in the preseason. Smith and Moore remain at the top. Beyond that, the quarterback picture has shifted hard. Manning, Carr and Sayin sit among the best available players left off the mock, alongside Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss.

Mestemaker is the clear QB1 in this version. The scouts highlight his arm talent inside and outside the pocket and his ability to break contain. Mensah goes ninth to the Jets as a pocket passer whose accuracy and ball placement stand out even without elite physical tools. Missouri’s Austin Simmons is the third first-round quarterback, 13th to Cleveland with the Rams’ pick. Oregon’s Dante Moore slides to 30th, to Minnesota.

Jets load up; Buccaneers take Simmons

New York has three first-round selections in the projection. After Mensah at No. 9, the Jets take Clemson cornerback Ashton Hampton at 11 and Alabama edge Yhonzae Pierre at 12 with Indianapolis’ pick.

Tampa Bay takes Texas edge Colin Simmons fifth. Simmons leads the FBS with 9.5 sacks through five games. South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart goes sixth to Arizona despite limited snaps this season from injury and a suspension.

Late first round

Indiana’s Nick Marsh lands 18th with Seattle. Florida running back Jadan Baugh goes 22nd to Denver. The round closes with Iowa interior lineman Kade Pieper to the San Francisco 49ers at 32.

The 2027 NFL Draft runs April 29 through May 1 in Washington, D.C.