Jeremiah Smith has now been the first player in the weekly mock-draft tracker for five straight weeks, and on all 18 first-round boards that landed between October 26 and November 1. The movement is behind him. Arizona State receiver Reed Harris and USC quarterback Jayden Maiava made the biggest jumps, Alabama cornerback Zabien Brown moved into the second round conversation, and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr slid from about the eighth pick to about the 15th.
The tracker measures each player’s average pick across the boards that week and compares it with the week before. Here are the five biggest risers and five biggest fallers, with the average pick last week and this week.
Biggest risers and fallers
| Player | Pos. | School | Move | Avg. pick, last week | Avg. pick, this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Maiava | QB | USC | Up 24.3 | 66.3 | 42.0 |
| Reed Harris | WR | Arizona State | Up 24.3 | 49.3 | 25.0 |
| Zabien Brown | CB | Alabama | Up 21.8 | 57.8 | 36.0 |
| Lance Heard | OT | Kentucky | Up 18.4 | 35.6 | 17.3 |
| Will Heldt | EDGE | Clemson | Up 18.0 | 58.0 | 40.0 |
| KJ Duff | WR | Rutgers | Down 7.1 | 18.0 | 25.1 |
| CJ Carr | QB | Notre Dame | Down 6.9 | 7.9 | 14.8 |
| Will Echoles | DL | Mississippi | Down 3.8 | 10.2 | 13.9 |
| Greg Johnson | IOL | Minnesota | Down 3.5 | 17.7 | 21.2 |
| Yhonzae Pierre | EDGE | Alabama | Down 3.5 | 19.6 | 23.0 |
Every move here is a change in the average, not in the order of a single mock, so a few boards can swing a name that is in only a handful of them.
Reed Harris pushes into the first round
Harris is the week’s clearest first-round gain, from an average of about 49th to 25th, which the tracker describes as a jump from the middle of Round 2 into the back of the top 25. The 6-foot-5 receiver had 48 catches for 804 yards and eight touchdowns through nine games, with two 100-yard games in his first three and a 147-yard game against Kansas State on October 24.
The timing is unusual, because his week at BYU was his quietest of the season. Harris caught one pass for four yards in the loss on Saturday, after seven catches for 63 yards at Texas Tech and six for 147 against Kansas State. That makes the jump look like a bet on his season rather than on his latest game. He is 47th on the 64-board consensus big board as of Monday, and SparkScouting has him as an early-second-round grade, compared with Joe Jurevicius.
Jayden Maiava goes from the third round to the middle of Day 2
Maiava’s average pick moved from about 66th to 42nd, the biggest jump of the week, and the tracker puts him in the middle of Day 2. On Saturday he led the Trojans to a 30-18 upset of No. 2 Ohio State, going 15 of 22 for 222 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. The touchdown was a 69-yard pass to Trent Mosley on USC’s second snap, and Maiava also found Mark Bowman for 70 yards in the third quarter before King Miller scored from the 1.
He is still a mixed case. The consensus big board has him 55th, behind eight other quarterbacks, and Spark has him in the mid-to-late second round.
Zabien Brown, Lance Heard and Will Heldt
Brown is the other defensive riser, from about 58th to 36th. The tracker says he climbed “off the Round 1 bubble into the early second” and calls it part of a pattern of premium picks going to defense when the quarterbacks cannot sort themselves out. The consensus has the Alabama corner 45th.
Heard, the Kentucky tackle, goes from about 36th to 17th, which puts him in the first round on average, and is 37th on the consensus board. Heldt, the Clemson edge rusher, moves from about 58th to 40th, and is 50th on the consensus.
Carr slides, Duff and Echoles also fall
Carr had been in the top 10 on average at 7.9 and is now at 14.8. He is on only eight of the 13 first rounds we counted in our latest consensus, though he is in the top eight in five of them. Duff, the Rutgers receiver, falls from 18.0 to 25.1 and Echoles, the Mississippi lineman, from 10.2 to 13.9.
The tracker adds that Arch Manning “simply wasn’t on several boards at all.” He is in seven of our 13 first rounds, so the real number depends on which mocks you count. For two more first rounds, see Walt’s and Charlie Campbell’s.
The most-mocked players
Here are the ten players who appeared on the most boards this week, with the average pick.
| Rank | Player | Pos. | School | Boards | Avg. pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | 18 | 1.11 |
| 2 | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas | 18 | 3.83 |
| 3 | Drew Mestemaker | QB | Oklahoma State | 18 | 4.28 |
| 4 | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame | 18 | 5.28 |
| 5 | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | South Carolina | 18 | 7.17 |
| 6 | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU | 17 | 8.47 |
| 7 | Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana | 17 | 9.41 |
| 8 | Ashton Hampton | CB | Clemson | 15 | 13.40 |
| 9 | Will Echoles | DL | Mississippi | 15 | 13.93 |
| 10 | Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia | 15 | 14.07 |
Mestemaker is the only quarterback in the top five, and the tracker says he is “holding just inside the top five mostly by staying upright” while the names around him wobble. Tennessee, the Jets and the Browns each hold more than one first-round pick on the current order.
A second tracker: movement on 24 boards
A separate tracker that blends 24 big boards, compared with October 19, has Austin Simmons as the biggest riser in its top 150, up 53 spots from No. 129 to No. 76. Notre Dame safety Luke Talich is up 48 to No. 145, Xavier Gilliam of Tennessee up 23 to No. 34 and LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt up 19 to No. 89.
Its biggest fallers are Ohio State linebacker Christian Alliegro, down 51 to No. 126, BYU cornerback Evan Johnson, down 36 to No. 183, and Clemson receiver TJ Moore, down 31 to No. 154. Notre Dame safety Tae Johnson is down 23 to No. 50.
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