The Tennessee Titans would hold the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft if the season ended today. Three teams are still winless through five weeks, the Titans, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins, and the tiebreaker for draft position puts Tennessee on top of that group.
This is the full order for the 18 teams outside the playoff field, using the standings through Week 5 and the traded first-round picks already on the books. Week 6 starts Thursday night with the Seattle Seahawks at the Denver Broncos, so the order will start to move within hours.
How the order is set
The 18 non-playoff teams get picks 1 through 18, worst record first. When teams have the same record, the team with the lower strength of schedule picks first. Strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of all 17 opponents on a team’s schedule, so a team that has lost against an easier slate is treated as the weaker team. If that is still tied, division or conference tiebreakers apply, and a coin flip is the last step.
In October, strength of schedule is a moving number. The figures below use the current records of every opponent on each team’s full 2026 schedule, including games still to be played, and they will change every week until the regular season ends.
The top 18 if the season ended today
| Pick | Team | Record | Strength of schedule | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 0-5 | .518 | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-5 | .554 | |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | .619 | |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 1-4 | .482 | |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-4 | .494 | |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 1-4 | .536 | |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 1-4 | .536 | |
| 8 | Washington Commanders | 1-3-1 | .506 | |
| 9 | New York Jets (from Dallas) | 2-3 | .471 | Cowboys’ record |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-3 | .476 | |
| 11 | New York Jets (from Indianapolis) | 2-3 | .488 | Colts’ record |
| 12 | New York Jets | 2-3 | .500 | |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns (from L.A. Rams) | 2-3 | .536 | Rams’ record |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 2-3 | .555 | |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3-2 | .464 | |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-2 | .488 | |
| 17 | Cleveland Browns | 3-2 | .494 | |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 3-2 | .518 |
Records and strength of schedule are through Week 5. For traded picks, the record shown is the original team’s record.
Three winless teams, split by schedule
The Titans, Chargers and Dolphins are all 0-5, so strength of schedule decides the top three. Tennessee’s 17 opponents have a combined record of 43-40-2, a .518 mark, the easiest slate of the three. The Chargers’ opponents are 46-37 (.554). Miami’s opponents are 52-32, a .619 winning percentage that is the hardest schedule of any team in the league, which drops the Dolphins to third.
None of the three has been close. The Dolphins have a point differential of minus-62, the worst in the NFL, the Titans are at minus-51 and the Chargers at minus-45. Tennessee has scored 58 points in five games, the fewest in the league.
The Titans play at the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and the Chargers visit the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins are on their bye in Week 6.
Cardinals and Saints split by a fraction
Four teams are 1-4. The Houston Texans have the easiest schedule of the group at .482 and would pick fourth, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fifth at .494. The Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints both show a .536 strength of schedule, but Arizona’s opponents are 44-38-2 and New Orleans’ are 44-38-1. That works out to .5357 for the Cardinals and .5361 for the Saints, so Arizona would pick sixth and New Orleans seventh.
The Washington Commanders’ tie with the New York Giants gives them a 1-3-1 record, a .300 winning percentage that slots them eighth, between the 1-4 teams and the 2-3 group.
The Jets would have three top-12 picks
Six teams are 2-3, and three of their picks would belong to the New York Jets. New York owns the Colts’ 2027 first-round pick from the Sauce Gardner trade and a first-round pick from Dallas from the Quinnen Williams trade. Under the terms of the Williams deal, the Jets get the better of the two first-round picks Dallas owns, its own and the Green Bay Packers’ pick it acquired in the Micah Parsons trade.
Right now that is the Cowboys’ own pick. Dallas has the easiest schedule of the 2-3 teams at .471, so the Jets would pick ninth with it, 11th with the Colts’ pick and 12th with their own. The Philadelphia Eagles, losers of three straight, would pick 10th.
The Cleveland Browns would also pick twice. They own the Los Angeles Rams’ first-round pick from the Myles Garrett trade, which would be 13th, and their own 3-2 record puts them 17th. The Atlanta Falcons are 14th, behind the Rams’ pick because their .555 schedule is the toughest among the 2-3 teams.
Week 6 has direct stakes for both of those trades. The Cowboys play at the Packers on Sunday night, a game between the two teams whose picks decide what the Jets receive. The Rams host the Cardinals on Sunday, with the Browns’ second first-round pick tied to the Rams’ result.
Picks 19 through 32
The last 14 picks go to the playoff teams in order of when they are eliminated. In the AFC, that field is currently the Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots, the Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders. In the NFC, it is the 5-0 San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings, the Giants, the Carolina Panthers, the Packers, the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears.
The Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns and Seahawks are all 3-2 and outside the field on tiebreakers, which is why they close out the top 18. The Packers’ pick, the one Dallas holds, is in the playoff range for now.
Who is at the top of the board
Whoever ends up with the first pick, the prospect most mock drafts send to the top is Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. He leads WhyNFL’s look at the consensus big board across 25 first-round mocks, with Texas quarterback Arch Manning second.
One of the top quarterbacks in the class will miss more time. Oregon’s Dante Moore is out for Saturday’s game against Nebraska, according to the Big Ten injury report released Wednesday. It will be the second straight game he has missed after a concussion against USC on Sept. 26. Coach Dan Lanning said Moore is back at practice and throwing the football but did not give a timeline for his return.
The video below looks at the 2027 prospects who have risen this fall and which of them belong at the top of the class.
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