Ryan Wilson’s new first-round mock, published Monday, makes Darian Mensah the first quarterback off the board, at No. 4, with Drew Mestemaker next at No. 6. That flips the order in our consensus of 13 mocks, and it leaves Arch Manning and CJ Carr out of the first round entirely.
Wilson has five quarterbacks in his first round: Mensah, Mestemaker, Oregon’s Dante Moore at No. 12, Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss at No. 28 and USC’s Jayden Maiava at No. 30. Offensive tackle leads the positions with six players and wide receiver has five. The Jets, Titans and Browns each hold more than one first-round pick on the board he used.
The top six picks
Jeremiah Smith goes first, to the winless Chargers. Colin Simmons, the Texas edge rusher, goes second to Tennessee and Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore third to Miami. The Jets, who hold the Colts’ pick, take Mensah fourth and South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart fifth, and the Browns trade up to No. 6 for Mestemaker.
Wilson calls Smith the best player in the class, and he is not a quarterback. A receiver has not gone first overall since the Jets took Keyshawn Johnson 31 years ago, and the last non-quarterback to go No. 1 was pass rusher Travon Walker in 2022. Smith has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, and Wilson’s case is plain: “Best player in college football, best player in the draft. Don’t overthink it.”
Wilson’s full first round
| Pick | Player | Pos. | School |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State |
| 2 | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas |
| 3 | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame |
| 4 | Darian Mensah | QB | Miami |
| 5 | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | South Carolina |
| 6 | Drew Mestemaker | QB | Oklahoma State |
| 7 | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU |
| 8 | Will Echoles | DL | Ole Miss |
| 9 | Lance Heard | OT | Kentucky |
| 10 | Chris Cole | LB | Georgia |
| 11 | Xavier Gilliam | DL | Tennessee |
| 12 | Dante Moore | QB | Oregon |
| 13 | Elijah Paige | OT | USC |
| 14 | Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana |
| 15 | Cam Coleman | WR | Texas |
| 16 | Trevor Lauck | OT | Iowa |
| 17 | Samson Okunlola | OT | Miami |
| 18 | Jadan Baugh | RB | Florida |
| 19 | Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia |
| 20 | Greg Johnson | IOL | Minnesota |
| 21 | David Stone | DL | Oklahoma |
| 22 | Trey’Dez Green | TE | LSU |
| 23 | KJ Bolden | S | Georgia |
| 24 | Jamari Johnson | TE | Oregon |
| 25 | Trevor Goosby | OT | Texas |
| 26 | Ashton Hampton | CB | Clemson |
| 27 | Ryan Coleman-Williams | WR | Alabama |
| 28 | Trinidad Chambliss | QB | Ole Miss |
| 29 | Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa | LB | Notre Dame |
| 30 | Jayden Maiava | QB | USC |
| 31 | Nick Marsh | WR | Indiana |
| 32 | Boubacar Traore | EDGE | Notre Dame |
The two picks the mock marks as bold are Okunlola, the Miami tackle, at No. 17 and Maiava at No. 30. The best available players it leaves out are Arch Manning, Carr, Alabama edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre, Mississippi State cornerback Kelley Jones, Utah tackle Zereoue Williams and Notre Dame safety Brauntae Johnson.
Why Mensah is Wilson’s QB1
Wilson acknowledges the main knock: the competition Miami has faced leaves “some (possibly many) questions unanswered.” But “he’s been consistently outstanding,” and Mensah has 2,425 passing yards, 109 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns on Wilson’s player card. On Saturday the top-ranked Hurricanes held off North Carolina 38-35 in Chapel Hill, with Mensah going 22 of 29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns, no interceptions and 36 rushing yards on four carries. Two of the scores went to Malachi Toney, and he found Mark Fletcher Jr. for a 31-yarder before halftime.
Okunlola, a Miami offensive lineman who started against the Tar Heels, is in the same mock at No. 17, and Wilson calls him a player who “isn’t on a lot of folks’ radar, but he will be,” a dominant run blocker who needs to finish more pass-protection reps.
The other quarterbacks
Mestemaker has 2,649 passing yards and 166 rushing yards. Wilson says that “if Arch Manning had Mestemaker’s 2026 tape, he’d be QB1 by a large margin,” and notes that the sophomore is only 20 and might not declare. For more on how he got here, see our Week 8 stock report.
| Quarterback | Pick | School | Passing yards | Rushing yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 4 | Miami | 2,425 | 109 |
| Drew Mestemaker | 6 | Oklahoma State | 2,649 | 166 |
| Dante Moore | 12 | Oregon | Season ended | Season ended |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 28 | Ole Miss | 2,189 | 199 |
| Jayden Maiava | 30 | USC | 2,525 | -71 |
Moore’s season ended with a concussion against USC in late September, and Wilson says he would have been the second quarterback if he had come out after 2025, adding that he is still “a first-round talent.” He had nine touchdowns and no interceptions this fall. Wilson has Chambliss going to the Steelers as a proven winner, while Maiava goes at No. 30 as a rhythm, pocket passer for Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Wilson also asks whether Pittsburgh would be better off with Austin Simmons.
No Manning, no Carr
Wilson says Manning has been “so inconsistent we’re wondering whether he should even enter the draft,” and this is the second straight mock without him. Carr is also out. His preseason model, which he calls the First-Round Readiness Score, was higher on Mensah, Mestemaker and Maiava than on the bigger names, and he says the season has backed it up.
That is a different picture from our consensus of 13 mocks, where Mestemaker was the first quarterback in nine and Manning was in seven first rounds, and from Walt and Charlie Campbell’s boards, where one sent Carr to the Jets.
Other names worth noting
Charlie Becker, the Indiana receiver, goes 14th to the Commanders and has 50 catches for 875 yards and nine touchdowns. Texas receiver Cam Coleman goes 15th, which Wilson says is a spot where Coleman can be dominant or “completely uninterested.” Florida running back Jadan Baugh, who has 801 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, goes 18th to the Patriots, and Wilson compares his patience to Le’Veon Bell’s.
Two tight ends, LSU’s Trey’Dez Green and Oregon’s Jamari Johnson, go 22nd and 24th. Wilson says Johnson’s 2025 tape was better than Kenyon Sadiq’s, and Oklahoma defensive lineman David Stone, whose August knee injury Wilson blames for a slow season, still goes 21st on his 2025 tape.
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