The Los Angeles Rams are the safest survivor pick of Week 6, but Mackenzie Kraemer would hold on to them if you are in a big pool. In his weekly survivor rankings, Kraemer puts the Rams first against the Arizona Cardinals and then lays out why the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts may be the smarter way to get through the week.
The pools have been rough so far. For the third time in five weeks, the most popular pick lost. Last week it was the Dallas Cowboys, taken by 35% of entries, who fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. Only 9.7% of entries in Kraemer’s main contest are still alive going into Week 6.
The Week 6 survivor rankings
| Rank | Pick | Spread | Win chance (model / Clay) | Future value | Still available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams vs. Cardinals | Rams -12.5 | 88% / 93% | 5th | 95% |
| 2 | Patriots vs. Jets | Patriots -7.5 | 79% / 75% | 13th | 96% |
| 3 | Colts vs. Titans | Colts -7 | 72% / 77% | 17th | 99% |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Chargers | Chiefs -8.5 | 74% / 93% | 4th | 37% |
| 5 | 49ers vs. Commanders | 49ers -7.5 | 86% / 86% | 1st | 44% |
| 6 | Bills at Raiders | Bills favored | n/a | 3rd | n/a |
Win chances list the analytics model first and Mike Clay’s projection second. Future value is where each team ranks for the rest of the season in Clay’s cheat sheet, and availability is the share of surviving entries that have not used that team yet.
Why the Rams are No. 1 but not a must
The Rams are 12.5-point favorites, their biggest projected spread of the season. That matters this year. Favorites of at least eight points are only 5-5 outright, but the four double-digit favorites are 4-0.
The catch is that the Rams should be favored in almost every game left. They visit the Las Vegas Raiders, host the Los Angeles Chargers and visit the Washington Commanders over the next three weeks, and they rank fifth in future value. Kraemer calls them the best pick in small pools that are unlikely to last all season. In large pools, and in contests with weeks that need two picks, he would save them, especially since the Rams host the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving.
The Patriots and Colts as the smart play
In bigger groups, Kraemer would take the Patriots against the New York Jets. New England is favored by 7.5 points and has won 16 of its last 17 home games against the Jets. The only loss came in Bill Belichick’s final NFL game. The Patriots still have two games left against the Miami Dolphins, but one is in Week 18 and the other, in Week 8, shares the slate with other strong options. Kraemer still says to watch the Jets’ injury report on offense.
The Colts are the contrarian choice against the Tennessee Titans. Kraemer sees only two weeks all season where Indianapolis is a strong favorite: this one and Week 10 at home against Miami. The Dolphins game looks better on paper, but it is likely to be the most popular pick that week, so using the Colts now gets you a good spot while fewer people are on them. Only 15% of entries had picked the Colts as of Tuesday evening.
The Chiefs and 49ers for those who still have them
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are both favored by more than a touchdown, but few entries still have them. The Chiefs are available to only 37% of surviving entries and the 49ers to 44%. The Chiefs host the Jets in Week 9 and the Cardinals in Week 11, and other strong picks are around in both of those weeks, so Kraemer sees this as a good week to use them.
The 49ers are now the Super Bowl favorites and rank first in future value. Outside a Week 16 trip to Kansas City, they should be favored the rest of the way. The analytics model sees Sunday’s home game against the Commanders as their easiest left, which makes this a reasonable week to use them too.
The Buffalo Bills at the Raiders round out the list, but Kraemer only likes them in contests with weeks that need two picks. Most of Buffalo’s future value sits in Week 11 against Miami, which is likely to be one of the most popular picks of the season.
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