Tom Pelissero: NFL executives doubt many of the top 2027 quarterbacks will declare, Arch Manning included, as Manning beats Ole Miss

Several NFL executives doubt that many of the quarterbacks at the top of 2027 draft boards will actually turn pro, Tom Pelissero reported Saturday, and Texas’ Arch Manning is one of the passers they are unsure about. That leaves teams with the worst records trying to plan around a class that may shrink before it ever reaches the draft.

In Pelissero’s telling, the doubts reach a large share of the leading passers, possibly more than half of them. He added that league scouts have seen less of Manning since Texas closed its practices, and he passed along the view of one college scouting director who called the job of grading the class, with no idea which passers will declare, a mess.

Several NFL executives expressed skepticism this week that some, if not a majority, of the projected top QBs will even enter the 2027 NFL Draft. That includes Arch Manning, whom NFL scouts have seen less of since Texas closed practice.

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— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 24, 2026

Nothing is decided yet. Underclassmen do not have to make a choice until after their seasons, and none of the quarterbacks in question has said what he plans to do.

Manning answers with a win over Ole Miss

The report landed hours before Manning’s biggest game of the year. Texas, ranked 19th, beat seventh-ranked Ole Miss 34-27 in Austin on Saturday night, ending a two-game skid that had followed its win over then-No. 1 Ohio State. Manning completed 18 of 30 passes for 212 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown to Ryan Wingo, and ran for two more scores, his first two rushing touchdowns of the season. The second, a 1-yard bootleg in the fourth quarter, broke a 24-24 tie and put Texas ahead for good.

It was not a clean night. Manning threw two interceptions and lost a fumble that Ole Miss returned for a touchdown, part of a run of 21 straight points that erased a 24-3 halftime lead. Steve Sarkisian still praised him: “I thought he competed his tail off,” the coach said. Manning said afterward that he had played the whole week with something to prove. Texas is now 5-2 and 2-2 in the SEC.

Before Saturday, Manning had 1,295 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in six games, after 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025. Dan Orlovsky said this week that Manning should not enter the draft and should play another college season somewhere other than Texas.

Where the top quarterbacks stand

The two most-followed boards still split on almost every passer below the top. The table uses Mel Kiper Jr.’s top 25 and Jordan Reid’s top 50; NR means the player is not on that list.

Only Chambliss, among the names in that table, has no choice to make. Dane Brugler wrote this week that the first 10 picks could pass without a quarterback, which has happened only twice in the last 25 drafts, because several of these passers may take lucrative offers to stay in college. His view is in our look at his mailbag. Mestemaker, who does not turn 21 until January and is only in his second season as a starter, is the most important decision of all: he was the first quarterback taken in 13 of the 18 recent mock drafts we tallied.

Pelissero also reported on Brendan Sorsby, a quarterback shut out of both college football and the NFL this season, who told him he is “game-planning” against a different NFL defense each week to get ready for the 2027 draft.

What comes next

Several of these quarterbacks have games that scouts will be watching closely. Miami visits Notre Dame on Saturday, November 7, a meeting of Mensah and Carr, and Moore is set to face Ohio State the same day. The 2027 draft runs April 29 to May 1 in Washington, D.C.