Luke Easterling’s new 2027 mock draft: Drew Mestemaker to the Dolphins at No. 2, Dante Moore jumps to No. 7 and Arch Manning goes 11th despite “I haven’t seen a first-round prospect”

Luke Easterling says he has not seen a first-round prospect in Arch Manning so far this season, and he still mocked him to the Cleveland Browns at No. 11. His updated first-round 2027 mock draft, published Friday, also has the Miami Dolphins taking Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker second overall and puts seven quarterbacks in Round 1, one more than in his October 15 version.

Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith stays at No. 1, to the Los Angeles Chargers. Oregon’s Dante Moore, who has not played since a September 26 concussion, made the biggest jump among the quarterbacks, from 16th to seventh. Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss is back in the first round at No. 30.

The full first round

The last column shows where each player was picked in Easterling’s October 15 mock. The draft order changed between the two versions, so the pick numbers matter more than the teams.

Pick	Team	Player	Pos.	School	Oct. 15 pick
1	Los Angeles Chargers	Jeremiah Smith	WR	Ohio State	1
2	Miami Dolphins	Drew Mestemaker	QB	Oklahoma State	3
3	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Moore	CB	Notre Dame	2
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Colin Simmons	EDGE	Texas	5
5	Washington Commanders	Dylan Stewart	EDGE	South Carolina	7
6	New York Jets	Darian Mensah	QB	Miami (FL)	6
7	Philadelphia Eagles	Dante Moore	QB	Oregon	16
8	Houston Texans	Trevor Goosby	OT	Texas	4
9	New York Jets	Cam Coleman	WR	Texas	8
10	Arizona Cardinals	CJ Carr	QB	Notre Dame	9
11	Cleveland Browns	Arch Manning	QB	Texas	13
12	New Orleans Saints	Will Echoles	DL	Ole Miss	11
13	New York Jets	Ellis Robinson IV	CB	Georgia	12
14	Atlanta Falcons	Jordan Seaton	OT	LSU	14
15	Las Vegas Raiders	Charlie Becker	WR	Indiana	10
16	Seattle Seahawks	Chris Cole	LB	Georgia	15
17	Cincinnati Bengals	Jamari Johnson	TE	Oregon	19
18	Baltimore Ravens	Greg Johnson	IOL	Minnesota	18
19	New York Giants	Melvin Siani	OT	Texas	26
20	Carolina Panthers	Trey’Dez Green	TE	LSU	31
21	Detroit Lions	Ashton Hampton	CB	Clemson	25
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Austin Simmons	QB	Missouri	30
23	Denver Broncos	Zereoue Williams	OT	Utah	22
24	New England Patriots	KJ Bolden	S	Georgia	24
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jadan Baugh	RB	Florida	27
26	Cleveland Browns	Yhonzae Pierre	EDGE	Alabama	17
27	Dallas Cowboys	A’Mauri Washington	DL	Oregon	21
28	Chicago Bears	David Stone	DL	Oklahoma	23
29	Buffalo Bills	Nick Marsh	WR	Indiana	20
30	Minnesota Vikings	Trinidad Chambliss	QB	Ole Miss	Not in Round 1
31	Kansas City Chiefs	Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR	Alabama	28
32	San Francisco 49ers	Kade Pieper	IOL	Iowa	32

Mestemaker to Miami, Smith to the Chargers

The Chargers hold the top pick for now, and Easterling does not see them taking a quarterback with Justin Herbert on a big contract. He wrote that getting the most out of their franchise passer is still the top priority, and there’s no better way to do that than by giving him a generational pass-catcher like Smith.

Mestemaker moved up from third to second and is still the first quarterback off the board. Easterling pointed out that Mestemaker has multiple years of college eligibility left. If he leaves early, Miami would let him be brought along slowly without much pressure to win right away. “His film has been fantastic so far this season, and his upside could make him the first passer off the board,” Easterling wrote. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore slid one spot to No. 3 with the Tennessee Titans, and Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who is out for Saturday’s game against Ole Miss, went fourth to Tampa Bay.

Seven quarterbacks in Round 1

Easterling wrote that Manning has lost his grip on the QB1 spot and that his erratic play has many people wondering whether he is worth a first-round pick or should go back to school for another year. Mestemaker, Miami’s Darian Mensah and Chambliss have filled the gap, and he added that Missouri’s Austin Simmons and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr could also crash the first-round party.

Quarterback	School	Oct. 23 pick	Oct. 15 pick
Drew Mestemaker	Oklahoma State	2 (Dolphins)	3
Darian Mensah	Miami	6 (Jets)	6
Dante Moore	Oregon	7 (Eagles)	16
CJ Carr	Notre Dame	10 (Cardinals)	9
Arch Manning	Texas	11 (Browns)	13
Austin Simmons	Missouri	22 (Steelers)	30
Trinidad Chambliss	Ole Miss	30 (Vikings)	Not in Round 1

Mensah stays at No. 6 with the New York Jets, who hold three of the first 13 picks in this mock and also take Texas receiver Cam Coleman ninth and Georgia cornerback Ellis Robinson IV 13th. Moore goes to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 7, even though he has played only four games this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers take Austin Simmons at No. 22, and Chambliss lands with the Minnesota Vikings at 30. Chambliss is out of college eligibility, so unlike most of this group he has no decision to make about returning to school.

Manning at No. 11 with a caveat

Manning moved up two spots from No. 13, but Easterling was blunt about it. “I’ll be honest: I haven’t seen a first-round prospect in Manning up to this point,” he wrote. If any team still takes a swing on him that early, he would not be surprised if it were the Browns. He wrote that he understands the upside from Manning’s flashes, but Manning is still chasing consistency, and Cleveland’s talented group of playmakers could help get the most out of him.

That puts Easterling on the more generous side. In our tally of 17 full first-round mocks published October 13-22, Manning was left out of the first round in five, and his average slot was 19.1. Going into Saturday, he had completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He faces Chambliss and Ole Miss at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (2:30 a.m. Sunday in Cairo).

24 hours🤘 pic.twitter.com/W59w0jaZSJ

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 23, 2026

Other movers

Texas left tackle Trevor Goosby fell from fourth to eighth, now with the Houston Texans. Dane Brugler named Goosby one of the season’s biggest disappointments in his midseason mailbag this week. Indiana receiver Charlie Becker slipped from 10th to 15th (Las Vegas Raiders), Alabama edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre from 17th to 26th (Browns) and Indiana receiver Nick Marsh from 20th to 29th (Buffalo Bills).

Texas tackle Melvin Siani rose from 26th to 19th (New York Giants), LSU tight end Trey’Dez Green from 31st to 20th (Carolina Panthers) and Clemson cornerback Ashton Hampton from 25th to 21st (Detroit Lions). Mississippi State cornerback Kelley Jones, 29th a week earlier, dropped out of the first round to make room for Chambliss.

Most of the quarterbacks in the table play Saturday. Mensah and Miami host Pittsburgh at noon ET, Mestemaker and Oklahoma State host Colorado at 7 p.m. ET, and Manning and Chambliss meet in Austin. Moore is out again for Oregon at Illinois.