Two long first-round mocks landed Wednesday, and they disagree about almost everything at quarterback. Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz has five passers going in the first round, with Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker fourth to the Philadelphia Eagles and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr fifth to the New York Jets. Rob Staton, in his first 2027 mock of the year, has four, leaves Carr out entirely and says Oregon’s Dante Moore would not be worth a pick as early as No. 11.
The two still agree on a lot. Twenty of their 32 first-round names are the same, and both start with Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, who would be the first receiver taken first overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. The split is in the order, the teams and who lands on the quarterback-needy rosters.
The top 10, side by side
Middlehurst-Schwartz orders the first round by each team’s projected average draft position, which puts the Tennessee Titans first and the winless Los Angeles Chargers third. Staton keeps the Chargers first. The differences in that order are part of why the same player lands at different numbers.
| Pick | Middlehurst-Schwartz | Staton |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State | Chargers: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State |
| 2 | Dolphins: Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame | Titans: Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina |
| 3 | Chargers: Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina | Dolphins: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas |
| 4 | Eagles: Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State | Jets (from Colts): Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame |
| 5 | Jets: CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame | Eagles: Zereoue Williams, OT, Utah |
| 6 | Jets (from Colts): Chris Cole, LB, Georgia | Jets: Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State |
| 7 | Saints: Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss | Texans: Xavier Gilliam, DT, Tennessee |
| 8 | Cardinals: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas | Saints: Chris Cole, LB, Georgia |
| 9 | Commanders: Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson | Commanders: Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia |
| 10 | Falcons: Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana | Jets (from Cowboys): Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss |
Both have the Jets drafting three times in the top 15, as our draft-order post laid out Tuesday. Middlehurst-Schwartz gives them Carr, Cole and Robinson, a Georgia cornerback, at Nos. 5, 6 and 14. Staton gives them Moore, Mestemaker and Echoles at Nos. 4, 6 and 10: a cornerback, a quarterback and a defensive tackle.
Quarterbacks: where each mock sends them
Add the two mocks from Monday that we covered, Ryan Wilson’s (our breakdown) and Justin Melo’s, and there is no agreement on the order of the position. Mestemaker is the closest to a lock, going between third and sixth in all four. After him it scatters.
| Quarterback | Middlehurst-Schwartz (Nov. 4) | Staton (Nov. 4) | Wilson (Nov. 2) | Melo (Nov. 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | 4, Eagles | 6, Jets | 6 | 3 |
| Darian Mensah | 15, Browns | 16, Browns (from Rams) | 4 | Not in round 1 |
| CJ Carr | 5, Jets | Not in round 1 | Not in round 1 | 4 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 11, Ravens | Not in round 1 | 28 | 16 |
| Dante Moore | 25, Vikings | 11, Cardinals | 12 | Not in round 1 |
| Arch Manning | Not in round 1 | Not in round 1 | Not in round 1 | 12 |
| LaNorris Sellers | Not in round 1 | 30, Vikings | Not in round 1 | Not in round 1 |
| Jayden Maiava | Not in round 1 | Not in round 1 | 30 | Not in round 1 |
| Quarterbacks in round 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Three teams show up in both new mocks as quarterback buyers. The Jets take Carr in one and Mestemaker in the other. The Browns take Mensah at 15 and 16, in nearly the same spot even though the writers get there from different directions. The Vikings take a quarterback late in the round, Moore at 25 for Middlehurst-Schwartz and Sellers at 30 for Staton. Middlehurst-Schwartz writes that the Kyler Murray experiment is becoming untenable, while Staton says it is clear Minnesota is back in the quarterback market and might even go get a veteran like Mac Jones first.
Where Staton pushes back
Staton is the harder grader. On Mestemaker he says no college quarterback has shown a better mix of translatable skills and physical tools, then adds a warning: “He has everything required to one day be a NFL starter but this is only his second season as a starting college quarterback and his first at Oklahoma State.” He counts four turnover-worthy plays against one big-time throw in Saturday’s game against Iowa State and says a return to Stillwater next year would be a good plan. Middlehurst-Schwartz reaches the same caution from a different side, writing that Mestemaker might end up a 2028 prospect rather than a 2027 one while still calling him the front-runner to be the first passer chosen.
On Moore, Staton says plainly that the tape does not justify a first-round grade and compares him to Josh Freeman, a big, strong-armed quarterback who he says flattered to deceive. He still puts him 11th to Arizona, writing that “the NFL is desperate for big, strong-armed throwers” and that one team will “roll the dice.” On Mensah, he writes that he does not have him graded this high at all and calls him a very good facilitator in college rather than an NFL difference-maker, though he adds that people he has spoken to describe real next-level buzz. On Carr, he is short: he does not see what there is to get excited about from an NFL standpoint.
That is the pattern in the two mocks. Middlehurst-Schwartz fills quarterback slots because teams need them, and Staton leaves slots open because he does not trust the tape. Field Yates put Mestemaker and Carr together in his first tier in our First Draft breakdown, and Staton does not share that view of Carr.
Position count: the receiver room is where Staton goes deepest
The two first rounds also show how each writer sees the class. Staton takes seven receivers and six cornerbacks, while Middlehurst-Schwartz takes five defensive tackles and four offensive tackles.
| Position | Middlehurst-Schwartz | Staton |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 5 | 4 |
| Wide receiver | 4 | 7 |
| Cornerback | 4 | 6 |
| Defensive line (interior) | 5 | 2 |
| Edge rusher | 2 | 2 |
| Offensive tackle | 4 | 3 |
| Interior offensive line | 1 | 1 |
| Linebacker | 2 | 2 |
| Safety | 2 | 2 |
| Tight end | 2 | 2 |
| Running back | 1 | 1 |
Staton lists Lauck of Iowa with the tackles, since his mock tags him tackle/guard. The receiver gap fits his remark that the receiver class looks strong and that the rising cost of paying a receiver on the market could push teams into it. He has Becker of Indiana to the Raiders at 12 after a two-spot trade up with Tampa Bay, then Alabama’s Ryan Coleman-Williams to Seattle at 17, Oklahoma State’s Justin Bowick at 24, Rutgers’ KJ Duff at 31 and Arizona State’s Reed Harris at 32. Middlehurst-Schwartz has Becker 10th and adds Texas’ Cam Coleman and Indiana’s Nick Marsh, whom Staton leaves out and says is likely a second-round player.
The names only one mock has
Middlehurst-Schwartz alone has Carr, Chambliss, Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone, Minnesota guard Greg Johnson, Florida running back Jadan Baugh, Coleman, Marsh, Kentucky tackle Lance Heard, Ohio State safety Jaylen McClain, Alabama lineman Devan Thompkins, Oregon defensive tackle A’Mauri Washington and Texas tackle Trevor Goosby. Staton alone has Coleman-Williams, Iowa linemen Trevor Lauck and Kade Pieper, Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy and receiver Deuce Alexander, Alabama cornerback Zabien Brown, Michigan cornerback Jyaire Hill, California safety Kingston Lopa, Bowick, Sellers, Duff and Harris.
Staton also lists the players he left out and why. Of Coleman, he writes that he is too erratic and should consider another year in college. He calls Baugh powerful but short of the quickness to create. And he says Goosby, who is coming off a torn patellar tendon in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s telling, is overrated and should consider another year. The Baugh point is the live one. Our 13-mock count had the Florida back in 12 first rounds, and he is 19th for Middlehurst-Schwartz, 18th for Wilson and 28th for Melo, with Staton as the dissenter.
For a third mock from the same day, the Best Pod Available hosts’ version, in which the Eagles land an elite pass rusher while the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, Browns and Steelers make quarterback decisions, is below.
The Jets, Browns and Vikings are the three teams both Wednesday mocks send into the quarterback market, so they are the ones to watch as the 2027 order settles.
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