Two new 2027 first-round mock drafts released Wednesday could hardly disagree more on Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Draft writer Vinnie Iyer sends Manning to the Tennessee Titans with the first overall pick. In Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock, Manning slips to fifth, to the New York Jets, and the writer admits even that “is probably rich” for him.
The two mocks came out days after Texas lost to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, a game in which Manning threw a costly interception. On his Wednesday draft podcast, Mel Kiper Jr. said he was no longer sure Manning belongs in his top 25.
The case for Manning at No. 1
Iyer, in his third first-round mock of the cycle, wrote that talk of Manning’s demise as a top prospect “has been greatly exaggerated.” He argued that Manning still has to cut down on turnovers but that his passing numbers are in line with the upside he showed in 2025, and that his running has been held back in Steve Sarkisian’s offense this season.
His reasoning for Tennessee centers on Cam Ward, the Titans’ No. 1 pick in 2025. Iyer wrote that Ward “isn’t feeling like their franchise QB” and that the Titans are better off starting over sooner rather than later if they stay at No. 1. He passed on Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith there partly because Tennessee already took Buckeyes receiver Carnell Tate fourth overall this year. Smith goes second to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The case against
Middlehurst-Schwartz went the other way. He has Smith first overall to the Miami Dolphins, which would make him the first wide receiver drafted No. 1 in 31 years, and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker second to Tennessee as the top quarterback. He wrote that Manning “continues to confound with his decision-making” and has struggled with ball placement, but that the Jets could take the gamble at No. 5 because Manning bounced back from a similarly rocky start last season.
He also warned that if Manning’s problems continue or get worse, “he likely won’t be given the benefit of the doubt anymore.”
Where the quarterbacks land
Manning is not the only quarterback the two mocks disagree on. Mestemaker goes second in one and 17th in the other. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr ranges from ninth to 23rd. Oregon’s Dante Moore is the only quarterback both writers put in the same spot.
| Quarterback | Iyer mock | Middlehurst-Schwartz mock |
|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning, Texas | 1. Titans | 5. Jets |
| Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State | 17. Browns | 2. Titans |
| Dante Moore, Oregon | 3. Dolphins | 3. Cardinals |
| CJ Carr, Notre Dame | 9. Jets (from Cowboys) | 23. Vikings |
| Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss | Not in first round | 12. Browns |
Iyer said the Browns are getting better play from Deshaun Watson, but that the Jets game was a wake-up call about a hole at quarterback that Shedeur Sanders can’t suddenly fill. That is why he gives them Mestemaker at 17. Middlehurst-Schwartz called Mestemaker, a former walk-on, the passer who has made the best case for a top-five pick. He also noted that Tennessee has gotten only 22 starts from Ward, which would make moving on from him hard.
The two writers used different draft orders. Iyer based his first 18 picks on a projected draft order, while Middlehurst-Schwartz used average projected draft position. That is why the Titans pick first in one mock and second in the other.
Kiper: ‘Does he even belong in the top 25?’
Kiper said he watched Saturday’s game while finishing a big board that comes out at the end of this week. At first he thought Manning belonged somewhere in the top 10 or top 15. “Then as you kept watching you think does he even belong in the top 25?” he said. He called Manning’s inconsistency “at an all-time high,” saying, “We don’t know series to series what we’re going to get from Arch right now.”
Kiper said a team that takes Manning in the first round should let him sit and learn behind a veteran first, and that if he were Manning he would stay at Texas for another season. Field Yates agreed that Manning has the size, athleticism and arm. His concern is that Manning has rarely taken over a game against a ranked opponent, even with first-round talent around him.
What’s next
Texas plays Florida on Saturday, one of several big college games this weekend along with Ohio State vs. Indiana and Notre Dame vs. BYU. Kiper’s top-25 big board, with his top five at each position, is due at the end of this week.
The 2027 NFL Draft runs April 29 through May 1 in Washington, D.C.
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